Bitcoin hovers just below its record in mid-May at around $ 119,000, while the global capitalization of crypto assets is approaching $ 4 billions, but traders say that the real test will come the last week of July, when an unusual group of American macro-polish events collided with an intensifying legal battle on the tariffs of President Trump.
“The last days of July open the land for the markets for the rest of the year. will react just once we have clarity.
The last days of July could shape the crypto
The meeting of the Federal Committee for the two -day free market from July 29 to 30 is the first time. Governor Christopher Waller, speaking last week, presented the arguments for an immediate rate drop of 25 bases, arguing that inflation linked to the rate seems “temporary” and that the labor market is “under pressure”.
The Kalshi prediction market platform attributes a probability of 40% with two sections and a probability of 13% with three cuts by December; Goldman Sachs now places the first decision in September, but merchants point out that even a single dominant dissent next week would have cement this calendar. As the Kobeissi letter comes down in a widely shared article: “The rate decreases arrive … The Fed meeting of next week will open the way for a drop in September.”
The secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, broke with the reluctance of the predecessors by everything except to ask the Central Bank to move earlier. “If inflation (price) is not sticky, they could do so earlier than September,” he told Fox News on July 1, after declaring two months earlier than “the bond market sends a signal that the Fed should cut.”
Only a few hours after the Fed’s decision, Bessent will unveil the borrowing plans in the third quarter of the Treasury during the quarterly reimbursement announcement. The agenda published on July 11 is a midday release on July 30. The offices are looking not only the size, but the mixture of maturity: Bessent advisers have floated heavier use of invoices available in the short term to “manage the yield curve”, a decision that would absorb money that turns into stablecoins and risk of crypto.
The prices come back to the point
Commercial policy is the second point of pressure. An executive decree of July 7 extended the reciprocal rates and launched a volley of pricing letters to the business partners; The new samples come into force on August 1 unless renegotiation. Bessent flies away for Stockholm next week in a last -minute offer to postpone an additional 100% on Chinese imports, stressing how fluid the landscape remains.
Even if diplomats buy time, lawyers cannot. The Federal Circuit Court of Appeal set on July 31 for an accelerated oral argument on selections VOs c. Trump, a case that could decide if a president can impose prices under the international law on the economic powers of emergency. The petitioners have already requested an exam from the Supreme Court before the judgment, qualifying the prices of “annual tax of $ 600 billion”. A decision to reduce executive commercial powers would eliminate what many Bitcoin bulls consider as a risk of long -term inflation tail; The opposite result could anchor politics.
Real yields – now the dominant macro -pondoor of Bitcoin – have reversed spleen expectations and treasure offer. The reference to 10 years fell by around 30 bp in three sessions to 4.34%, reflecting 8% BTC to 8% during the same period.
For the moment, the market game book is simple: look at the Fed points, count the invoices of the QRA, read the pricing letters – and, as Jauvin has advised, “stay freezing”.
At the time of the press, the market capitalization of total cryptography amounted to 3.81 billions of dollars.
