The global trade concerns of trade war will put pressure on cryptocurrency and traditional markets until the beginning of April, but the potential resolution could bring the next major market catalyst.
The Bitcoin Prize (BTC) fell by more than 17% since US President Donald Trump announced for the first time the import prices on Chinese products on January 20, the first day after its presidential inauguration.
Despite a multitude of positive developments specific to crypto, the fears of world prices will continue to put pressure on the markets until April 2 at least on 2, according to Nicolai SONDERGAARD, research analyst at Nansen.
BTC / USD, graphic at 1 day. Source: Cointelegraph /Tradingview
The analyst said during the Daily X Cointelegraph chainrection on March 21:
“I can’t wait to see what’s going on with the prices from April 2, maybe we will see some of them abandoned, but it depends if all countries can agree. It is the biggest driver at the moment.”
Risk assets can lack orientation until the concerns related to prices are resolved, which can occur between April 2 and July, with a positive market catalyst, added the analyst.
President Trump’s reciprocal tariff rates should take effect on April 2, despite the previous comments of the Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent who indicated a possible delay in their activation.
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Fed interest rates also contribute to the fall in the market
High interest rates will also continue to put pressure on risk appetite among investors until the federal reserve finally begins to reduce rates, said Surdergaard, adding: adding: adding: adding: adding: adding: adding: adding: adding: adding:
“We are waiting for the Fed to see an appropriate” bad news “before starting to reduce rates.”
Fed of target interest rate probabilities. Source: Fedwatch tool from the CME group
The markets currently assess an 85% chance that the Fed maintains stable interest rates at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on May 7, according to the latest estimates of the Fedwatch tool of the CME group.
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However, the federal reserve indicates that inflation and concerns related to the recession are transients, in particular with regard to prices, which can be a positive sign for investors, according to Iliya Kalchev, Dispatch analyst at Nexo Digital Asset Investment Platform.
“The markets can now expect to come economic data with greater confidence,” said the analyst at Cointelegraph, adding:
“The cooling of inflation and stable economic conditions could still stimulate the appetite of investors, which has made an additional increase for bitcoin and digital assets.”
“Keep an eye on key reports, including consumer confidence, the GDP of the fourth quarter, complaints of unemployment and the crucial release of inflation of the PCE next week, to assess the probability of future rate reductions,” added the analyst.
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