News of December 29: The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a volatile upward movement. At press time, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$Bitcoin was up 2.47%, trading at $90,127; $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$Ethereum rose 3.19%, trading at $3,045.
The latest analysis indicates that the stock prices of Bitcoin Treasury companies $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ remain low, while Bitcoin premium indicators are also falling. A crucial decision on whether MSCI will remove Strategy from its index in January next year is approaching. In this context, the strategy is moving into a “defensive mode” and recently established a liquidity reserve of approximately $2.2 billion to withstand the challenges posed by Bitcoin investments. This fund should be used for preferred stock dividends and debt interest payments rather than to acquire more Bitcoin.
$Coinbase (COIN.US)$ Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong posted on Platform X that banks are lobbying the US Congress to change the GENIUS Act. Coinbase will not allow any changes to the law, as it represents a red line for the company, and will continue to protect the interests of customers and the cryptocurrency industry. Brian Armstrong added that he personally predicts that within a few years, once banks realize the enormous business opportunities presented by stablecoins, they will change their position and lobby Congress to allow interest and returns on stablecoins. Therefore, current efforts are futile (and unethical) and the innovator’s dilemma persists.
It is reported that the current GENIUS Act prohibits stablecoin issuers from offering stablecoin rewards, but intermediary platforms such as Gemini, Coinbase and Kraken can do so and have already been incorporated into existing legislation. If traditional bankers revised the law to prohibit such practices, it would stifle innovation in the stablecoin space.
According to Forbes, since hitting an all-time high in October, Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency market have seen a significant decline. The price of Bitcoin is currently hovering around $90,000 per coin, down from its all-time high of $126,000. In contrast, gold, silver and US stocks accelerated their rise towards the end of the year. The market is showing a rare “split trend.” This situation is not simply driven by a sense of risk aversion, but is more likely a “strategic response” of institutions and capital to the global monetary system.
Ramnivas Mundada, head of economic and corporate research at GlobalData, predicts that as global central banks continually adjust their reserve structures and reduce their reliance on dollar-denominated assets, the dedollarization process will accelerate. By 2026, gold could rise another 8-15%, while silver could rise 20-35%.
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Analyst: Historically, there has been a correlation divergence between Bitcoin, US stocks and gold. After the latest such event, BTC prices increased tenfold.
Crypto analyst Plan B published on the X platform that the current price correlation of Bitcoin with US stocks and gold has deviated. This phenomenon happened historically when Bitcoin was below $1,000, after which its price increased tenfold. Although price correlation is not absolute and current market conditions may differ, time will tell.
In response, another analyst, Willy Woo, said the theft incident at Mount Gox in late 2013 put pressure on the price of Bitcoin, and the impasse over block size disputes in 2014 triggered the whale sell-off. The question now is whether investors will view quantum computing as an obstacle equivalent to the “block size debate.”
A recent report from Coinbase Institutional indicates that the cryptocurrency market is shifting from traditional boom-and-bust cycles to a model driven by structural forces, with activity increasingly concentrated in a few key areas. These areas are expected to dominate the functioning of the crypto market by 2026 and shape the long-term future of the sector. The top three areas predicted by Coinbase are perpetual futures, prediction markets, stablecoins, and payments.
$Strategy (MSTR.US)$ Executive Chairman Michael Saylor tweeted “Back to Orange,” hinting at another Bitcoin purchase. Peter Schiff, a gold advocate and economist, later questioned the source of his funds, wondering whether he had raised money by reducing his stock holdings or selling them at a discount.
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Lu Lei: The future digital renminbi will carry the liabilities of commercial banks and possess functions such as monetary value measurement, value storage and cross-border payment capabilities.
According to reports from China’s Financial Times, Lu Lei, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, said in an article that the future digital renminbi will be a modernized digital payment and circulation tool supported by the technical safeguards and supervision of the central bank. It will possess the attributes of commercial bank liabilities, be account-based, incorporate features of distributed ledger technology, and circulate within the financial system as a medium of exchange, store of value, and instrument for cross-border payments. In the future, the choice of operational and technical models for the digital renminbi will prioritize meeting the needs of the real economy as the fundamental starting point. An inclusive but cautious approach will be taken in guiding the development of account-based and token-based digital currencies to ensure that the digital renminbi meets the demands of different scenarios and business entities.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, $Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR.US)$ Bitmine continues to transfer ETH for staking. Over the past two days, Bitmine has staked 342,560 ETH ($1 billion).
On December 29, it was reported that regarding deBridge co-founder Alex Smirnov’s revelation that the Flow team had decided to restore the blockchain without consulting key bridge partners, which could pose significant risks, Flow posted on the X platform stating that it was currently coordinating with key infrastructure partners to finalize the restart plan. The repair plan has been distributed to ecosystem partners (including bridge operators, exchanges, and validators) and is currently being evaluated. Coordination should be completed within the next 2-3 hours. Flow reiterated that user funds are safe and unaffected.
According to reports from China Financial Times, Lu Lei, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, announced that the central bank will introduce the “Action Plan for Further Strengthening the Management Service System and Construction of Related Financial Infrastructure of Digital RMB”. The measurement framework, management system, operational mechanism and next-generation ecosystem for digital RMB will officially come into effect on January 1, 2026.
According to 10x Research’s weekly market report, the cryptocurrency market entered the new year with low activity typical of cyclical downturns, but derivatives positions quietly signaled a mixed trend. Volatility is decreasing, funding rates are gradually increasing, and leverage remains high despite falling transaction volumes and participation. ETF flows, stablecoin trading activity, and futures positions no longer align, creating a deceptive calm on the surface while underlying turbulence persists. The options market undergoes adjustments, usually signaling a change in market dynamics rather than a continuation of trends. Meanwhile, technical indicators are approaching critical thresholds, where even minor fluctuations could trigger larger-scale asset allocation adjustments.
Cryptocurrency trading volumes fell 30% from typical levels. Funding rates rose slightly amid the orderly liquidation of futures contracts. Bitcoin’s downward trend continues but could turn bullish in January. Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) stands at 43%, indicating a bullish signal, while the stochastic oscillator at 30% suggests a bearish signal. Bitcoin is 4.5% away from triggering a trend reversal, with the current trend remaining bearish. The key price level for short-term bullish/bearish sentiment is $88,421, while the main bullish/bearish threshold is $98,759. Ethereum could also see a bullish trend reversal in January.
Ethereum’s RSI is at 44%, signaling bullish potential, while the Stochastic oscillator at 23% indicates bearish conditions. Ethereum is 5% away from triggering a trend reversal, with the current trend remaining bearish. The key price level for short-term bullish/bearish views is $2,991, while the main bullish/bearish threshold is $3,363. The realized volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has started to decline significantly: Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility is 38.2%, down 7% from its 30-day average of 45%. Ethereum’s 30-day realized volatility is 61.2%, 5 percentage points lower than its 30-day average of 66.6%.
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Academic Journal Administered by the Supreme People’s Court Publishes Article: Commercial Law Reforms for Digital Transactions, Electronic Money and Virtual Assets
The official WeChat account of the Supreme People’s Court published an article in its administered academic journal “Digital Rule of Law” titled “Commercial Law Reforms for Digital Transactions, Electronic Money and Virtual Assets”, which noted: The amendment to the Uniform Commercial Code jointly revised by the Uniform Law Commission and the American Law Institute was officially adopted in 2022 and was subsequently widely adopted by legislatures across the United States. This amendment encompasses various transaction methods, including electronic formats, clarifies the relationships between tangible currency, central bank digital currencies and other virtual currencies, establishes a new property category called “controllable electronic record” and defines the rules for control and transfer of these assets.
China’s civil and commercial standards are also expected to evolve to meet the development of digital transactions, electronic money and virtual assets through practice-oriented legal improvements, thereby encouraging economic and technological progress and ensuring an advantageous position in international institutional competition.
Still worried about a Bitcoin slowdown? Should you take a small position or just wait and see? If you don’t have time to monitor the market, consider regular fixed investments >>
Editor/Afina
