00:00 Speaker A
We saw a major sell-off in the Dow here. You can see it’s down 592 points, or about 1.2%, and the Nasdaq is down 1.6%. The list is long, the S&P 500 down, the Russell 2000 a little more. It hasn’t been disastrous, but we’re starting to get into an uncomfortable zone. And one of the things I noticed, especially in the Russell 2000, was this late sales day here. This is something you don’t want to see.
00:23 Speaker A
But not everything was red today. And let’s move on to bonds. Here’s a here’s a little bit of green here. So we also saw the US dollar index as well as bonds. So it’s not like the rotational trade that we saw after the liberation of the United States in April of last year.
00:41 Speaker A
What this actually reminds me of is a bit of that moment of deep searching that we had a year ago. and that’s when stocks look overvalued, then there was an event and the catalyst almost doesn’t matter. It does, but it doesn’t. It could have been several things. We had a lot of selling in metals last week. We will come back to this. and that sort of precipitated other things. And when you have volatility, then it increases, well, that means there’s less risk taking and
01:07 Speaker A
sometimes we throw the baby out with the bathwater. But let me just show you, Josh, you just caught my attention a few minutes ago, the S&P 500 went negative for the year. So let’s look at the year to date here. These are American indices and I have everything from majors to a few minors. Over there, DJT is the transport index. This has exploded lately. This represents an increase of 12%.
01:31 Speaker A
SOX is for chip stocks, S&P 600 for small caps, 400 for mid caps, Russell 2000 for small caps. Here is the software. This looks really ugly. But the damage is contained because the SOX is still positive. But what we’re seeing is that the S&P 500 is now negative for the year. And you take a look at the action in the sector, that’s been the case since the beginning of the year as well. Technology is now down 6% for 2026, financial services, consumer discretionary and communication services.
01:58 Speaker A
These are all mega-cap sectors plus financials and you really see it in the Nasdaq 100. But again, it’s not all red and it’s for the year and so it’s not like we’ve seen a disaster yet.
02:11 Speaker B
This is not about selling America. It seems to be about selling cryptocurrencies, at least lately.
02:16 Speaker A
Yes. And I think we’re officially in a crypto winter now. And uh, let’s just go to the Bitcoin charts and then I’ll tell you about my conversation with Mark Newton at Fundstrat. This is what has been happening since the beginning of the year, but if I compare it to today, it doesn’t look so great. In fact, you might blink if you’re watching the markets for the first time.
02:42 Speaker A
This is what happened today and the slow and steady sales have somehow accelerated. Here’s a 10-day look at it and you can see now, wow, we’ve now reached 63,000. We’ve actually reached 62,000, which means Bitcoin has been cut in half from its 2025 high. And here we go. This is a three-year overview. My line in the sand was 75,000. That’s the story. And uh, like I said, I was talking to Mark Newton at Fundstrat about this on the shares of
03:13 Speaker A
translation. The episode is out now. Here’s what he had to say about crypto.
03:20 Mark Newton
Personally, I don’t feel like we’re losing 80%. I think it’s going to be capped at 60, probably between 50 and 60. I don’t think it’s going to be a straight decision.
03:36 Speaker A
All right, so high 50, 60. I’m the work of 10X and uh they say maybe 40 and they also say in terms of timing, if you take a look, let me put a 10 year chart here so we can see the last major spike, the rise from 20 to 22 and it was this failure that took place when crypto as a whole was almost wiped out, but it was a crypto winter and it finally found a bottom.
04:08 Speaker A
They say watch the summer through September, that’s probably when we’ll see the eventual bottom, but it could be heading into the 40s. So that’s a long way to go.
04:21 Speaker B
All right, it’s cryptography. Do you want to check certain metals, gold, silver?
04:23 Speaker A
Let’s do that too. because if we experience a crypto winter, maybe a deep bullion freeze because the metals didn’t do very well today. We saw them bounce around a bit, but guess what? We, uh, we’ve seen them give a lot back. So let’s see if I can find my G’s, here we go. Let’s just take a quick look at the money here, the five day look. There you go, let’s move on to day 10 and there you have it.
04:54 Speaker A
We have this little bounce. We see a drop of 15% or 30 15% today, 37% over the period. Excuse my fat fingers here. Let me just put the year to date on this. And there’s this huge decline. So we are exploring new lows for silver, but not highs.
05:13 Speaker B
Alright, thanks, buddy. Enjoy it.
05:15 Speaker A
You bet.
