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Bitcoin can be trapped under the gravitational attraction of forced deterioration, but the macro strategist and the direct orientation animator Felix Javin insists that the clearing of risk books is nothing more than “the prelude to an incredible exchange once the diversion is finished”. In a thread on X, Jauvin covers budgetary arithmetic, world liquidity metrics and trade geopolitics to affirm that the next major BTC impulse will arrive when the capital flows that have supported the domination of American assets reversed and have re -evolved the abroad of risks abroad.
Bitcoin in the middle of Trump chaos
JAUVIN begins by borrowing the empirical backbone of Michael Howell’s work. “Bitcoin is mainly motivated by global liquidity,” he wrote, citing the tests of the Cataisality of Howell which give liquidity an eleven-week statistical advance on cash prices. The beta version of actions style “is a parasitic correlation”, maintains JAUVIN, because American actions were simply the channel by which the global liquidity of the dollar has been expressed since the deficits of the pandemic era inflated the cash issue and the income of households at the same time.
By putting figures for the complaint, he notes that the United States has “managed a substantially higher budget deficit in% of GDP than any other country”, a difference which “mechanically leads to higher inflation, higher nominal GDP, and therefore high-level income for companies”. By extension, the S&P 500 – and the Bitcoin increasingly – have monopolized additional risk capital. “Because of this dynamic, the American stock markets were the dominant marginal engine of the growth of risky assets, the effect of wealth, world liquidity and therefore a void so that world capital goes where it is better treated: the United States.”
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Jauvin’s inflection point is the declared ambition of Trump’s campaign to compress the trade deficit and cause allies in heavier budgetary expenses for defense and infrastructure. “The Trump administration wants to reduce trade deficits with other countries, which mechanically implies a drop in American dollars that flow to foreign countries that will not be reinvested in American assets,” he wrote. A paired objective is “a lower dollar and stronger foreign currencies”, reached as lifting rate of foreign central banks and investors repatriated from funds to raise.
He sees the genius that is already coming out of the bottle: “The approach of Trump Shoot – Ask -Questions – After the commercial negotiations leads the rest of the world to get rid of their lean tax deficits … I believe that the nations will continue with this prosecution anyway.”
If foreign governments are embarking on reset and industrial policy funded by the deficit, marginal growth in global liquidity would migrate out of Washington and Europe and Asia. “While the United States continues to move from a world capital partner to a more protectionist partner, the owners of American-documentary assets will begin to increase the risk premium associated with these previously virgin assets and will have to mark them with a wider safety margin.”
Why Bitcoin, and why after the sale
JAUVIN frames current disorders such as the necessary purgation of overcrowded positions: “The first job consists in selling American assets that the whole world is overweight and to avoid the degreaser that is in progress.” The exhaustion of margins obliges funds to collect funds without discrimination, pinning Bitcoin to Tech Beta for the moment. But, he insists, the second phase promotes assets without national accounts or pricing risk. “During rotation market days and non-Marge days, we started to see this dynamic take shape. DXY DOWN, US sub-performative actions, the golden arrow and the bitcoin that are surprisingly well. ”
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Gold has already answered, he notes. Bitcoin, on the other hand, “did not follow the outperformance of Gold” because its reputation with high beta maintains systematic traders on the fringes. This sets up asymmetry: “For me, a risk research macro-trader, Bitcoin looks like the cleanest trade after trade here. You cannot priced Bitcoin, this does not concern the border in which it resides … and provides exposure specific to global liquidity, not only for American liquidity.”
Above all, Javin anticipates a visible break in moving with American technology once the non -American budgetary stimulus becomes the main source of incremental liquidity. “I see the potential for the first time … so that Bitcoin has become of American technological actions,” he wrote, conceding that the idea has already injured a lot, but arguing that this time “we see the potential of a significant change in the flows of capital that would make it lasting”.
If the logic of the wire holds, current stress is compulsory downstream before a secular re -evaluation. “This market regime is why Bitcoin was built,” concludes Javin. “Once the rough dust is deposited, it will be the fastest horse out of the door. Accelerate.”
At the time of the press, BTC exchanged $ 84,766.
Star image created with dall.e, tradingView.com graphic
