As crypto markets look beyond short-term volatility, Dragonfly Capital is focusing on 2026. From a broader perspective, the company’s leadership highlights the changing structure of the Bitcoin market, increasing competition from big tech wallets, and a more selective future for decentralized finance. The message is clear: the next phase of crypto growth will reward fundamentals rather than hype.
Bitcoin Price Outlook and Changing Market Structure
Bitcoin remains the focus of Dragonfly’s 2026 thesis, but not for the reasons seen in previous cycles. Qureshi believes the asset could trade above $150,000 in the next couple of years, but he doesn’t expect it to dominate the market in the same way it did before.
It’s that time again: as 2025 draws to a close, it’s time to abandon the 2026 predictions.
I think 2026 will surprise, both on the upside and on the downside. Organized by category:
Macros / Strings
* $BTC is >$150,000 by the end of the year, but BTC dominance declines in 2026.
*Despite the…— Haseeb ＞|＜ (@hosseeb) December 29, 2025
Bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral and scarce asset has strengthened amid macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly as regulatory clarity improves in major jurisdictions. Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization could decrease. This change would not be a sign of weakness. Instead, this change points to growth in other parts of the ecosystem. Investments are shifting to stablecoins, settlement rails and blockchain-based financial infrastructure rather than new base layer bets.
Learn more: Stablecoin – A Complete User Guide
Stablecoins play a central role in this evolution. According to Dragonfly’s analysis, supply could grow significantly by 2026 as banks, fintech companies and cross-border payment providers adopt blockchain rails. Even modest growth rates would translate into hundreds of billions of dollars of on-chain liquidity.
Asked about the issue of privacy as a major theme, Qureshi hesitated. “I think privacy is going to lag behind,” he wrote. “Zcash will probably work well because people want to believe in it, and there will be some adoption of private transactions on Arc, Tempo, etc.” However, he returns to his general framework: “I predict that most people will continue to do things in 2026 as they have already done them. »
At press time, the total crypto market capitalization stood at $3.07 trillion.
Big Tech Wallets and the Next Phase of Enterprise Adoption
One of Qureshi’s most followed views focuses on the role of big tech in the next phase of crypto. He expects at least one major tech company to launch or acquire a crypto wallet by 2026, with a focus on payments, custody or digital identity rather than commerce.
For platforms with global user bases, wallets provide flexibility without exposure. They can enable cross-border payments, identity verification, loyalty programs or programmable transactions, all without issuing a token or managing a public blockchain.
This distinction is essential. Previous attempts by big tech companies to roll out their own digital currencies have often failed under regulatory pressure. Crypto wallets, however, face fewer obstacles. They fit more comfortably within existing financial rules and tend to attract much less attention from regulators.
Learn more: An Introduction to Hardware Wallet by NFTPlazas
Business adoption of blockchain is also growing, although it has largely escaped public attention. Many companies are experimenting with permissioned or hybrid systems that connect to public blockchains for settlement or verification purposes. Advances in stacking and modular architectures have reduced integration costs.
Why Fintech-Backed Blockchains Are Hitting a Ceiling
Despite growing enterprise interest in blockchain, new layer 1 networks launched by fintech companies face structural limitations. The problem isn’t performance or engineering. It’s positioning.
Blockchains marked or controlled by a single company have difficulty presenting themselves as neutral infrastructure. Developers are often reluctant to rely on networks whose governance, incentives, or strategic direction remain under the control of a single corporate sponsor.
When neutrality is called into question, ecosystems may struggle to attract outside participation. Without strong composability or sustained demand from third parties, fintech-backed blockchains risk becoming inward-looking platforms, limited to a narrow range of predefined use cases rather than an open financial infrastructure. Growth can be steady, but it is usually capped.
A more disciplined crypto market
Dragonfly’s outlook for 2026 suggests a market that seems increasingly familiar to traditional finance. Speculation still exists, but it no longer defines the entire cycle. Infrastructure, compliance and capital efficiency now matter more.
| Theme | Expected direction |
| Bitcoin Price | Above $150,000, driven by institutions |
| Bitcoin Dominance | Gradual decline as ecosystem expands |
| Supply of stablecoins | Strong growth in payments and banking |
| Entry of big tech | Wallets and infrastructure, no new tokens |
| New Fintech L1 | Limited adoption compared to established channels |
| Enterprise Blockchain | Hybrid and authorized models are developing |
Key Themes That Will Shape Crypto Through 2026
Bitcoin remains central, even if its role has evolved. It anchors value while other sectors absorb growth. Big Tech is entering quietly, through wallets and tools rather than bold currency launches. New blockchains face higher hurdles, while established networks strengthen their position.
