Journalist
Published:
Ethereum, the king of all altcoins, continued to trade near $1,975 after crashing almost 60% from its October 2025 high.
Tension has intensified in Ethereum markets. Kalshi contracts reflect a growing conviction of further decline, amplifying the pressure already visible on the chart.
Was the market preparing for collapse or was it dangerously overreacting?
Prediction Markets Turn Bearish on ETH
Kalshi traders pegged a roughly 49-50% chance of Ethereum (ETH) falling to $1,250 by 2026. Nearly a 30% chance even extended towards levels below $1,000. It was not a passive fear. It was financed by positioning.
Source: Kalshi Forecast Markets
The bearish framework centered on ETF outflows and institutional selling pressure. Layer 2 value accumulation concerns additional structural doubt. Therefore, Ethereum was treated as vulnerable rather than resilient.
However, prediction markets reflected snapshots of sentiment, not guaranteed outcomes. Historically, extreme probabilities of decline often appeared near emotional exhaustion.
As a result, some participants perceived this as defensive overcrowding.
Longer time frames remain structurally optimistic
Despite these developments, Ethereum’s higher temporal structure has remained technically intact. A bullish pennant formation continued to squeeze the price action.
Source: TradingView
In particular, $1,513 to $1,537 served as immediate structural support. Repeated reactions above this level preserved the macro pattern. Failure to defend it would have decisively invalidated the bullish framework.
However, even a rebound from $1,513 would not automatically confirm strength. The continuation of this activity required sustained momentum and better market conditions. Therefore, structure alone did not guarantee expansion.
Liquidity favors the rise
Liquidation heat maps showed that most of the downside liquidity had already been cleared. Stops below recent lows were swept aggressively during the early February decline.
Source: CoinGlass
Meanwhile, substantial liquidity remained positioned above the ETH price. The clusters extended towards the $5,000 region on higher timeframes. As seen in previous cycles, these imbalances have often acted as a magnet for prices.
This created asymmetric exposure for short positions. A strong upward impulse could have quickly triggered forced liquidations. Therefore, bearish positioning leads to structural fragility.
Is this the last upheaval before an escape?
The market has entered a decisive phase of confrontation. Sentiment was bearish, but structural integrity persisted.
Looking ahead, $1,513 remained the determining threshold. A decisive outage would have validated Kalshi’s lower pricing. However, continued defense could have forced the shorts to uncomfortably unfold.
As we move toward 2026, psychology remains divided. Fear dominated the positioning. The structure always controlled the outcome.
Final summary
- Bearish odds increased, but $1,513 remained intact.
- The liquidity imbalance suggested that the upside risk had not disappeared.
