Ethereum could be near a major inflection point, according to market analyst Ali Martinez (@alicharts on
In an article on Overall, the message was clear: the recent weakness may have looked less like a breakdown and more like a reset within a broader bullish structure.
Ethereum’s path to $10,000?
Martinez presented the graphical configuration as the backbone of the thesis. “From a technical perspective, ETH continues to trade within a well-defined ascending triangle on the weekly chart,” he wrote. “The recent move toward $1,800 was a critical reaction point, aligning with the ascending trendline of this multi-year structure.” In other words, the analyst does not consider the rebound as an isolated event. Relevance comes from where it occurred: directly at a level he considers structurally important in the context of a long-term model.
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This technical argument was combined with an on-chain signal that Martinez described as even more consequential. He said Ethereum’s MVRV ratio recently fell below 0.8, a threshold he called a rare valuation reset. “Historically, this has been a generational buying zone. We have seen similar resets before major bull rallies in the past,” he wrote. “The fact that this on-chain reset occurred exactly when price was testing triangle support adds considerable weight to the bullish thesis.”
The logic of the appeal is based on this overlap. A test of chart support alone can cause skepticism, especially after prolonged weakness. But Martinez’s point is that Ethereum doesn’t just hold a key structural area; it does so as on-chain data suggests the asset has entered a zone associated with deep undervaluation in previous cycles. This does not guarantee a trend reversal, but it reinforces the importance of the current range.
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He also highlighted a change in dynamics on shorter time frames. According to Martinez, the daily Supertrend indicator has now turned green for the first time since May last year, suggesting that the long period of consolidation could give way to a new directional move. According to him, the market is coming out of a “sideways routine” and is starting to rebuild bullish momentum.
From there, Martinez laid out the price levels that could determine whether the thesis holds. He identified $2,356 as the first major level Ethereum needs to recover, followed by $2,647 and $3,639 as medium-term breakout targets. Beyond that, it marked $4,632 and $5,624 as longer-term expansion zones.
The biggest prize, however, lies further afield. “A sustained move above $2,356 would be our first confirmation that ETH is moving out of ‘accumulation’ and heading into a true bull market expansion,” he wrote. “If it manages to breach the previous all-time high near $4,900, the door will open for a move towards $10,000, as this will signal a breakout of the ascending triangle.”
For now, the thesis remains conditional rather than complete. Martinez described the $2,000 to $1,800 range as a “prime accumulation zone,” while adding that the bull market is not yet “guaranteed.”
This warning is important. His case for a sustainable bottom depends on Ethereum holding the $1,800 bottom and then sequentially reclaiming higher resistance levels. If this happens, the current pattern could be seen as an early reaccumulation phase rather than just another bounce in a wider range.
At press time, ETH was trading at $2,054.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
