The market is in “cautious optimism” as traders look to regain their footing.
Ethereum (ETH) is not immune. Down -26% for everyone who jumped in at the start of Q4, it lags behind Bitcoin (BTC). Additionally, it crossed the $3,000 threshold for the first time since July, pushing more HODLers underwater.
In this context, for ETH to trigger FOMO, it really needs to maintain this level. If this is the case, we could see the start of a bullish reversal. Interestingly, a combination of macro and micro factors suggests that this could indeed be happening.
Ethereum market finds balance despite fluctuations
Ethereum shows that the market is in a delicate phase.
At press time, ETH was trading at $3,000, while the realized price was $2,315 and the MVRV was 1.27. This means that the market price is only 27% above the realized price, indicating a neutral balance between buyers and sellers.
Simply put, Ethereum is not overheated. Shareholders are not sitting on large unrealized gains or losses, which helps keep the consolidation around $3,000 stable, supporting stability unless MVRV falls significantly below 1.
Source: CryptoQuant
At 1.27, ETH appears balanced, with no extreme pressure from either side.
Looking ahead, Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade is scheduled for December 3, less than a week away. Traders are already showing bullish sentiment, anticipating higher network activity and smoother transaction flows.
Notably, this optimism appears to be based on fundamentals rather than “hype.” Could this be the setup for ETH to see significant movement post-upgrade, especially with MVRV hovering around neutral levels?
ETH Staking and Block Changes Signal Early Market Moves
Investors are showing clear signs of early conviction.
For example, the Royal Government of Bhutan recently staked around $970,000 in ETH, while VanEck’s ETH ETN added 12,600 ETH to the stake. In fact, over the last ten days, Ethereum’s TVS has increased by 160,000 ETH.
Meanwhile, Ethereum increased its gas block limit to 60 million, up from 45 million just four days ago. Simply put, this gives each block more space for transactions, thereby improving throughput and reducing network congestion.
Source: EtherScan
In short, ETH is expanding its capacity just before the Fusaka upgrade.
And when you couple this with increased staking flows, it’s clear that investors are showing stronger long-term commitment. This turns the upcoming upgrade into a catalyst as traders begin to position early.
In this context, Ethereum’s neutral MVRV adds to the setup.
Around 1.27, the market is neither overheated nor oversold, giving ETH room to maneuver if a catalyst occurs. With the arrival of Fusaka, more staking, and higher block capacity, ETH could set the stage for its next move.
Final Thoughts
- Ethereum holds a neutral MVRV, which gives the market the opportunity to anticipate the Fusaka upgrade.
- Increased staking flows and early investor positioning signal a growing belief that the upgrade could act as a bullish catalyst.
