Ethereum is showing notable relative strength after reclaiming the $3,150 level and attempting to push higher, providing a refreshing change in sentiment after weeks of intense selling pressure, fear and market-wide uncertainty. As the broader crypto landscape begins to stabilize, ETH stands out as one of the assets showing early signs of recovery, attracting renewed attention from traders and long-term investors.
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A key factor supporting this change is the unrealized net profit/loss (NUPL) for Ethereum on Binance, which currently sits around 0.22 as the price trades near $3,100.
This level reflects a delicate balance between fear and optimism, indicating that a significant portion of ETH holders remain in moderate profit. It is important to note that NUPL has not yet entered the “greed” zone typically seen in the latter stages of a bull cycle, suggesting that the market is far from overheated.
Instead, Ethereum appears to be moving into a more neutral and constructive phase where investors are cautiously optimistic but not overly euphoric. This balance often forms the basis for a healthier recovery, especially after a deep correction. If momentum continues to build and NUPL remains stable or trends higher, ETH could position itself for a stronger upward move in the coming weeks.
NUPL signals a transitional market phase
Arab Chain notes that Ethereum’s NUPL index saw a significant rise between June and August, reaching levels well above today’s and reflecting strong profitability across the network in mid-2025. At that time, investor sentiment was quite optimistic, supported by rising prices and improving macroeconomic conditions.
However, as the price of Ethereum began to decline steadily from October, unrealized profits began to decline. This pushed NUPL into more neutral territory, signaling a shift in sentiment from high optimism to a more grounded and cautious outlook.
Importantly, NUPL did not fall into negative territory, meaning the average ETH holder did not experience unrealized losses. This is an important sign of the underlying strength of the market. When investors remain profitable, they tend to be less motivated to sell aggressively at lower prices, which reduces the risk of panic-induced capitulation and helps stabilize price action during corrections.
Taken together, these signals indicate that Ethereum is currently in a transitional phase. The market is neither euphoric nor fearful; rather, it awaits a decisive catalyst to define the next trend. As long as NUPL remains above 0.20, Ethereum maintains a significant level of investor confidence, increasing the likelihood of a rebound if liquidity strengthens or positive fundamental developments emerge.
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ETH rebounds strongly on the weekly chart
Ethereum’s weekly chart shows a powerful rebound as the price moves back above the $3,150-$3,200 region, reclaiming a critical support band that had turned into resistance during the November sell-off. The long lower wick of last week’s candle confirms strong buyer interest around the $2,700-$2,800 area, an area that has historically acted as a major demand region during multi-month corrections.
ETH has now reclaimed the 100-week SMA, a key trend indicator currently positioned near $2,900, signaling renewed structural stability. The 200-week SMA, sitting comfortably lower, continues to reinforce the long-term uptrend. However, the 50-week SMA, which has flattened and is now around the $3,350-$3,400 level, represents the next important resistance level. ETH will need a decisive weekly close above this moving average to confirm a true return to bullish momentum.
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The volume of the rebound is significantly stronger than in previous consolidation phases, suggesting increased participation and growing confidence among market participants. However, ETH is not yet in the clear. The series of lower highs since the September peak forms a descending pattern that must be broken for a sustained uptrend to resume.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
