Ethereum is once again attempting to reclaim the $3,100 level after several days of speculation, hesitation, and mixed signals in the broader crypto market. Although price action has shown signs of stabilizing, conviction remains limited, keeping traders cautious as Ethereum hovers near a key inflection zone. The bulls are trying to regain control, but the market is still looking for confirmation that the recent pullback has fully occurred.
According to an analysis published on CryptoQuant, derivatives data provides important context for this consolidation phase. Open interest on the Ethereum markets currently stands at around $7.8 billion, while the price is trading near $3,100. This positioning is remarkable because it reflects a balanced environment: Open Interest is neither at extremely low levels, which would signal a massive unwinding of positions, nor at overheated highs generally associated with excessive leverage and fragility.
Instead, the data suggests that market participants are largely maintaining their existing positions rather than aggressively exiting or entering new trades. This behavior indicates a squeeze phase, where traders wait for a clearer directional catalyst before committing more capital. Such conditions often precede sharp moves, as volatility tends to increase once the price breaks out of consolidation.
As Ethereum tests this critical level, the interplay between price stability and sustained open interest will be key. Whether this equilibrium turns into a bullish continuation or a further downward move will likely define Ethereum’s near-term trajectory.
Rising open interest signals breakout risk for Ethereum
The report explains that Ethereum’s recent price behavior is increasingly constructive when compared to derivatives data. Over the past few sessions, the price has increased slightly while the Open Interest has continued to increase. This combination is important: it suggests that new positions are being opened without a significant reduction in existing exposure. Concretely, market players are engaged rather than sidelined, and positioning is built rather than degraded.
At the same time, volatility begins to increase after a prolonged period of compression. This type of environment often precedes a breakthrough decision, when price and positioning tighten into a narrower range. Notably, Open Interest has now recovered above its SMA(30), SMA(50), and SMA(100) moving averages. This change signals a renewed willingness to take risks in the leveraged market and confirms that traders are gradually increasing their exposure instead of reacting impulsively.
If Ethereum can continue to hold above the $3,000 level and open interest increases steadily – rather than in sharp spikes that typically precede liquidations – the setup favors a controlled, driven spot advance. Under these conditions, the price could extend towards the $3,700 zone, which represents a natural upside target for this structure.
Ethereum appears to be preparing for an imminent breakout. With Open Interest rising and demand improving, a sharp move is increasingly likely. The market will resolve through either a sharp bullish breakout above the $3,324 resistance or liquidations. The bias remains towards a positive breakout towards $3,700, followed by a reassessment as part of a broader downtrend.
ETH consolidates in a critical long-term pivot zone
Ethereum price action on the weekly chart shows a market caught between structural support and unresolved bearish pressure. After failing to maintain momentum above the $4,000-$4,200 zone in 2025, ETH entered a broad correction phase that pushed the price back towards the $3,000 zone, where it is currently consolidating. This region has become a crucial battleground, acting as a medium-term balance between buyers and sellers.
From a trend perspective, ETH is trading near its long-term moving averages, with the 200-week moving average providing dynamic support around $2,000. The ability to stay above this level suggests that the broader uptrend from the 2022 lows is not yet invalidated. However, price remains capped below short-term declining averages, highlighting that upside momentum is still weak and rallies continue to face supply.
Structurally, the market forms a wide consolidation range between around $2,700 and $3,400. A sustained hold above $3,100 keeps ETH in limited conditions, but does not confirm the trend reversal.
For the bulls, recovering and holding above the $3,300-$3,400 resistance zone would be the first signal of renewed strength and a potential path to higher levels. Until then, Ethereum remains vulnerable to further downside volatility if support near $2,800-$2,700 is revisited.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Editorial process as Bitcoinist focuses on providing thoroughly researched, accurate and unbiased content. We follow strict sourcing standards and every page undergoes careful review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance and value of our content to our readers.
