So far in 2024, Ethereum’s price performance has not met market expectations. Instead of rallying alongside Bitcoin to new all-time highs as expected, it has stagnated and failed to reach $4,000 even at the height of its rally. Now, with Q3 in full swing, Ethereum’s price may still be a long way from any new all-time highs, given that this is historically the worst quarter for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.
How Ethereum Performed in Q3
The third quarter of the year, consisting of July, August, and September, has historically been rather bearish for the price of Ethereum. We see this from the data presented on the Coinglass website, which has been tracking the altcoin’s monthly returns since its launch in 2016.
While the average return for most other months has been quite high, these three months have some of the lowest numbers, with more red months than green months ending in the third quarter over the years.
To put things in perspective, in nine years, July has only finished in the green 3 times, with 6 negative months. August has also followed the same trend, with 6 negative months and 3 green months. September, in eight years so far, has finished in the red 5 times, while only 3 times in the green. As a result, the average monthly returns for these months are +5.51%, +6.98%, and -7.67%. Then, the median returns are all negative across the board.
These performances show that the third quarter of the year has always been the most bearish. In contrast, Ethereum recorded its best returns in the first quarter of the year, followed closely by the second quarter. Therefore, as the year draws to a close, the price of Ethereum is becoming increasingly bearish.
What to expect from here
If historical data is anything to go by and Ethereum price continues this trend, the altcoin may not see a significant recovery by the end of the year. Data suggests that September could be even worse with more losses.
However, entering the final quarter of the year could bring some relief to investors as prices could rise again. But for actual gains, it could take months until Q1 2025 when Ethereum price is known to record its best returns.
Furthermore, if this pattern holds, Ethereum price could reach a new all-time high by Q2 2025. This would put it above $5,000, signaling a 2x increase from here.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart by Tradingview.com
