Standard Chartered has set a new long-term target of $40,000 for Ethereum (ETH) by the end of 2030, while significantly reducing its forecast for the end of 2026, arguing that Ethereum’s relative pattern is improving even as weakness due to Bitcoin has weighed on the crypto’s absolute price targets.
In a research note, Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s digital assets analyst, touted 2026 as a potential inflection point for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin, despite the downward revision of its ETH-USD trajectory in the medium term. “We believe the outlook for ETH has improved, so we expect the cross to gradually return to its 2021 highs,” Kendrick wrote, highlighting the rebound in the ETH/BTC relationship as a central expression of his thesis.
Standard Chartered recasts Ethereum outlook
Standard Chartered now expects ether to end 2026 at $7,500, down from its previous estimate of $12,000, before rising to $15,000 in 2027 (from $18,000) and $22,000 in 2028 (from $25,000), with $30,000 planned for 2029 (instead of $25,000). and $40,000 by the end of 2030.
Related reading
“I think 2026 will be the year of Ethereum, just like 2021 was,” Kendrick writes. The bank attributes the near-term decline to Bitcoin’s drag on dollar-denominated crypto performance, with Kendrick noting that weak BTC action has “weighed on the outlook for dollar-priced digital assets,” forcing lower absolute targets through 2028, even as Ethereum’s relative fundamentals strengthen.
Kendrick highlighted a set of Ethereum-specific supports that he believes are more likely to show up in relative performance than immediate spot price upside. He highlighted the continued accumulation of Bitmine Immersion Technologies, which the note describes as the largest Ethereum-focused digital asset treasury company, at a time when ETF inflows have “temporarily stopped” and broader corporate treasury purchases have cooled.
Related reading
He also cited Ethereum’s central role in stablecoins, real-world tokenized assets, and DeFi as structural drivers of demand, and highlighted the execution of plans to increase Ethereum’s layer 1 throughput by approximately 10x over the next two to three years. “Analysis shows that higher throughput results in higher market capitalization,” Kendrick wrote.
Regulation has been flagged as another potential tailwind. Kendrick highlighted the US CLARITY Act as a development that could be favorable to the sector and “especially ETH” if it helps unlock another phase of DeFi activity. The U.S. Senate is expected to consider the bill on January 15, with possible passage in the first quarter.
For traders, the framework implies that Standard Chartered’s highest conviction expression is less about setting an exact ETH-USD level over the next 12 months and more about whether Ethereum can reclaim relative ground against bitcoin in throughput, stablecoin-heavy activity and policy clarity.
At press time, ETH was trading at $3,126.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
