In a thread on could reach a price target of $14,000 by the end of 2025. Liu also claims that the next six months will be crucial, highlighting ETH’s potential to “dominate the market” until June.
“Ethereum is poised to dominate the market, you don’t want to miss this window,” Liu wrote. “Ethereum is lagging Bitcoin this cycle, but that is about to change. I think ETH will shine over the next 6 months.
Why Ethereum Could Outperform the Market
Despite ETH’s growing adoption, Liu says its underperformance versus Bitcoin comes from “institutional timing.” According to him: “ETH is institutionally motivated, unlike Bitcoin or retail-favored altcoins. ETFs offer stability and utility, making ETH ideal for institutional investors. Liu suggests that institutions have been waiting for market conditions to improve and sees 2025 as the year when those conditions will finally align.
Liu also points to policy changes from the US Federal Reserve as a catalyst for ETH’s growth. He notes that since May 2024, the Fed has slowed its balance sheet reduction and that a possible pivot to further liquidity injections could occur after the January 29 or March 19 meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
“Since May 2024, the Fed has slowed its balance sheet reduction, signaling a turning point. An increase in liquidity could follow the FOMC meetings on January 29 or March 19. Why it matters: Fed liquidity pumps historically drive ETH/BTC higher. He concludes that such a move by the Fed “means ETH outperformance” could be on the horizon.
Citing a decade of market data, Liu says ETH typically outperforms Bitcoin from January to June, while Bitcoin tends to lead from July to December. “From January to June, ETH systematically outperforms Bitcoin. …If you hold ETH, until June is historically the best earning window.
Liu also highlights the Trump administration’s potential pro-ETH sentiments, referencing the former president’s NFT collections and DeFi platform built on Ethereum: “His NFT collections and DeFi platform are built on Ethereum . The Trump administration plans to replace the leadership of the SEC, reviewing anti-DeFi decisions. Institutional optimism increased following Trump’s November 2024 election victory, boosting ETF inflows. He concludes that “pro-crypto policies will directly benefit Ethereum-focused DeFi.”
Further underscoring Ethereum’s institutional strength, Liu points to real-world asset (RWA) tokenization initiatives led by major companies like BlackRock and leading DeFi platforms such as AAVE, MakerDAO and OriginTrail: “Ethereum does not isn’t at the forefront of coin or AI trends – it’s fueling serious institutional growth.
Liu highlights a notable change in Ethereum ETF inflows, which turned positive in November 2024 after a period of outflows: “ETFs added $6 billion in net inflows from November to January, or 0.76% of the supply of ETH/month. …Institutions are buying more ETH than BTC monthly, signaling growing confidence in Ethereum as an asset.
Looking ahead to 2025, Liu estimates that ETH could quadruple to $14,000 if Bitcoin doubles to $200,000, citing Ethereum’s historical tendency to outperform Bitcoin by an additional factor of two: “If Bitcoin doubles to $200,000, ETH could quadruple to $14,000, following its history. outperformance (2x above BTC). …Even though diminishing returns may limit upside, ETH remains a high-conviction bet for this cycle.
Summarizing his view, Liu points out that a confluence of factors – from the Fed’s liquidity replenishment to potential pro-DeFi policies – creates a near-term window of opportunity for Ethereum: “With increasing inflows of ETFs, the Fed’s potential liquidity injection, Trump’s pro-DeFi support. position and seasonal strength of ETH, all catalysts are aligned. …Ethereum’s time to shine is now through June. I would rather be overexposed than miss this opportunity.
At press time, ETH was trading at $106,929.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
