Unemployment in the US printed 4.6% in November (about 4.56% unrounded), up from 4.4% in September. Powell’s basically saying the Fed is “well positioned to wait and see” and that policy should help the labor market stabilize…he even said it might only tick up one or two more tenths rather than roll over hard. Also important: he said they haven’t made any decision about January.
The interesting part here is futures markets briefly priced in about a 31% chance of a January cut after the jobs data (then it cooled a bit). Looking further out, the market is still leaning toward roughly two cuts during 2026.
For crypto this is kinda mixed signals. Lower rates usually mean more money flowing into riskier assets like Bitcoin and ETH because traditional savings become less attractive. But if the Fed stays cautious and keeps rates higher for longer, that could keep pressure on crypto prices in the short term.
ETH is currently trading around $2.93k and crypto hasn’t really reacted much even after last week’s 0.25% Fed cut. Powell also mentioned inflation risks are tilted upward while employment risks are tilted downward, which keeps them stuck in that “data dependent” mode.
Powell’s comment that inflation risks are tilted upward while employment risks are tilted downward explains the current data-dependent limbo. For crypto participants, that also means staying organized on the backend….especially with volatility-driven trades, where platforms like Awaken Tax quietly become useful for tracking gains, losses, and compliance while everyone else is focused on macro headlines.
Worth keeping an eye on how unemployment numbers trend over the next few months. If it keeps climbing, the Fed might get forced to move sooner than the “wait and see” vibe suggests.
