The contrasting performance of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) in the first quarter led to divergent prospects in the second quarter, said Fidelity Digital Assets in a report of April 28.
Bitcoin ended in the first quarter of exchanging nearly $ 82,560, down more than 20% compared to its highest 2024 $ 108,000. However, the flagship crypto has maintained fundamental chain solids.
Meanwhile, technical weaknesses and weaker network activity dropped Ethereum by 45% during the same period.
Fidelity’s analysis stressed that technical parameters and accumulation trends have remained stable, supporting the medium and long -term resilience. Ethereum closed the quarter at $ 2,246, reflecting wide weakness, although evaluation measures have suggested potential opportunities for long -term investors.
Bitcoin is consolidated, fundamentals intact
Despite short -term volatility, Fidelity’s report revealed that the main technical signals of Bitcoin remain constructive.
The golden cross formed at the end of 2024 was still intact at the end of the first quarter, although the asset exchanged 4% below its 200 -day mobile average.
In addition, the chain data showed that long-term holders are accumulating, with supply and exchange of the illiquid offer that continues to decrease, which suggests that investors were moving bitcoin in the self-care.
Fidelity noted that the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score, used to measure the evaluation in relation to the value carried out, decreased but remained neutral, indicating that the beneficiary margins had compressed without triggering a large sale.
Likewise, the reserve risk metric has suggested favorable long-term risk conditions, supported by macro-factors such as potential decreases in federal reserve rates and institutional adoption.
Miner’s health has also remained stable. Although profitability has decreased compared to the last quarter of 2024, the revenues of minors remained higher than the averages of 365 days and the growth in the hash rate continued at a healthy pace.
The Puell multiple has shown that mining yields have remained close to historical standards, reflecting resilience in mining operations despite the reduction of half 2024.
Fidelity concluded that the current Bitcoin consolidation phase could create opportunities for long -term investors to accumulate, with support levels close to $ 86,000 and $ 88,500 representing important technical thresholds.
Ethereum faces short -term weakness
The sharp drop in the prices of Ethereum in the first quarter led to deterioration in short -term technical signals. ETH fell below its 200 -day and 50 days mobile averages, and a death model formed in early March.
Fidelity has awarded Ethereum a short -term negative perspective, reflecting these technical weaknesses and falling from network activity.
However, the fundamental principles of evaluation and the network have painted a more complex image. Fidelity reported that the Ethereum MVRV Z score entered the “undervalued” area in March, a historic association with long-term accumulation phases.
Net metric not carried out by profit / loss (NUPL) also transferred to the territory of capitulation, which suggests that current prices were close to historic stockings compared to past cycles.
The activity on the base layer of Ethereum has shown modest reductions of new addresses, active addresses and transactions of transactions during the first quarter, while the transaction volumes of layer 2 dropped by 11%, marking a break compared to previous growth trends.
Fidelity noted that upcoming developments such as Pectra upgrade, which will double Blob’s capacity, could be critical to reactive network activity.
The development of participation has rebounded modestly after a rare drop in the last quarter of 2024, and the dynamics of the network issue changed slightly, with an annualized inflation rate of 0.63% during the quarter.
Fidelity attributed this change to participation in higher excitement and lower transaction costs, which reduced the volume of burned ETH.
Investors’ prospects for T2
For Bitcoin, Fidelity sees a neutral environment in the short term but maintains a positive position on medium and long -term horizons based on high data on the chain and a continuous institutional quantity.
The report advised investors to monitor support levels and potential macroeconomic catalysts, such as changes in monetary policy and government initiatives.
Meanwhile, he warned against the short -term prospects of Ethereum as technical weakness persists. However, the company has suggested that current evaluation measures have an attractive entry point for long -term investors, in particular if upgrades of the upcoming network and improvements in L2 activity are materialized.
The Fidelity report has concluded that, although Bitcoin shows signs of stability in the middle of consolidation, Ethereum can offer value -contrary value to investors arranged to sail on short -term volatility.
