FOMC Minutes (March 17-18 Meeting) — April 8, 2026
The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its March 17-18 meeting on Wednesday. Two days later, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the March CPI. Taken together, these two publications offer the most comprehensive picture yet of how the Fed views inflation. With the April 28-29 FOMC meeting now underway and a major Fed leadership transition approaching, these two data points carry more weight than a typical mid-cycle reading.
The Federal Open Market Committee publishes the minutes of its meeting three weeks after each decision. Today’s release covers the March 18 decision, in which the Fed kept the federal funds rate between 3.50 and 3.75 percent.
What makes this version noticeably different from a routine minutes drop is the context. The March meeting took place as oil prices were rising sharply in response to conflict in the Middle East, and Powell’s subsequent news conference signaled increased uncertainty about how much of a shock would fuel sustained inflation.
Traders are also reading this through the lens of leadership transition. Powell’s term expires in May and Kevin Warsh’s confirmation remains pending. If the minutes signal internal disagreement over the pace of possible future easing, this divergence becomes more significant when the chair may change hands before the next meeting. Historically, FOMC statements have produced distinct reactions regarding rate-sensitive assets when the committee’s internal language deviated from the post-meeting statement. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, all USD denominated pairs.
US CPI — Data for March 2026 — April 10, 2026
Friday’s Consumer Price Index release covers the month of March and will be the first inflation release to fully reflect the period following the surge in oil prices that accompanied the Middle East conflict. February’s CPI stood at 2.4% year-on-year, with energy contributing significantly to the monthly increase.
The question traders are asking is whether the March data reflects a one-off energy-related hike that the Fed will ignore, or whether it shows greater price stickiness in services and housing. The Fed’s March projections maintained a median forecast of a reduction in 2026, but seven committee members now forecast a zero reduction. The hot numbers for March add pressure to this already cautious posture.
If March CPI turns out to be significantly higher than February, markets could interpret this as a reduced likelihood of a cut at the April 28-29 meeting or beyond. If it meets or falls short of expectations, traders could reassess how much of the energy shock is contained. Either scenario creates a defined reaction window around the 8:30 a.m. ET release. There is real uncertainty in formulating scenarios: the data will resolve what the minutes can only suggest. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Markets covered on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, all major pairs, spot and margin.
Goldman Sachs First Quarter Results — April 13, 2026 |
JPMorgan Chase First Quarter Results — April 14, 2026
The results of the main American banks arrive mid-week, accompanying the publication of the PPI. Goldman Sachs reports Monday ahead of the open; JPMorgan reports Tuesday alongside PPI data.
Goldman is the most closely watched pure-play investment banking signal. Its fourth-quarter 2025 results showed a four-year high in its deal book, and its first-quarter 2026 results will tell markets whether the M&A pickup that began late last year holds up in an environment of higher oil and higher uncertainty. JPMorgan’s call will have macroeconomic weight beyond its own results. Dimon’s formulation of consumer credit terms and his tone on the economic impact of the oil shock have historically influenced broader risk positioning.
For crypto-specific context: JPMorgan disclosed a partnership with Coinbase last year, and Goldman’s asset management division has been active in developing digital asset products. The tone of both calls, particularly any indication of institutional appetite for risky assets, is worth watching alongside macroeconomic data from earlier in the week.
Markets concerned: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, spot and futures.
BTC/ETH CME Monthly Options Expiry — April 24, 2026
CME’s monthly Bitcoin and Ether options expire on the last Friday of each month. The April expiration falls on April 24, four days before the FOMC meeting. Monthly maturities have less notional value than quarterly settlements, but they nevertheless create a localized window where positioning and hedging activities are concentrated. This cycle is notable because the expiration is just before the FOMC and TOKEN2049 Dubai decision, meaning traders could adjust their derivatives exposure ahead of several successive catalysts.
Affected markets: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, BTC and ETH futures on Kraken Pro.
CLARITY Act — Increase from the Senate Banking Committee (targeted: end of April)
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is the most significant piece of US crypto legislation awaiting action. The bill, which passed the House in July 2025, would establish a formal division of SEC/CFTC jurisdiction for digital assets and create a rules-based regulatory framework to replace the enforcement-focused approach of recent years.
The Senate Banking Committee is aiming for an increase in the second half of April, after returning from the Easter break on April 13. The main sticking point, whether crypto platforms can pay a yield on stablecoin balances, is reportedly close to being resolved, but the text has not yet been finalized. No agreed markup date has been officially announced.
This is not a scheduled event with a confirmed date. Traders monitoring the legislative calendar should note that any committee action, or lack of action, before the end of April could significantly move assets related to the foreign exchange and stablecoin sector. The regulatory implications of the bill are structural rather than immediate, but legislative steps have historically produced strong short-term reactions on the assets most directly affected. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Markets covered: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, broad crypto market.
Level 3 Events
Paris Blockchain Week (April 15-16): one of the largest crypto gatherings in Europe. Watch for ETF-related announcements, news on protocol partnerships or signals from European regulators that may be scheduled for the conference. U.S. Retail Sales — Data for March (April 21): carried forward from April 16; will provide the first reading of demand covering the period following the oil price surge.
Final context
This is a week where macro and crypto-specific catalysts directly overlap. FOMC minutes and CPI come ahead of earnings from the major banks, meaning traders are likely to enter the first quarter results already processing new signals on rates and inflation. Add in the expiration of CME options and the regulatory backdrop of the CLARITY Act, and it’s a week that rewards structured thinking about responsive positioning. Know what is scheduled, what is expected, and use the tools at your disposal before the events arrive.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results. Trading involves risks.
