Less than a week after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission granted Gemini Space Station Inc. a designated contract market (DCM) license, the cryptocurrency exchange has added prediction markets to its platform.
Gemini Predictions is now available through the company’s affiliated entity Titan Gemini. According to the Dec. 15 announcement, the platform will offer “event contracts that are simple yes or no questions about future events.” Such examples provided include “Will a Bitcoin end this year at a price above $200,000?” or “Will Elon Musk’s X end up paying the entire $140 million fine to the European Commission in 2026?”
“Gemini Predictions harnesses the wisdom of the public and the power of markets to more accurately predict the future,” the announcement reads. “They reward market participants for their truthful ideas and also help them better prepare for the future by aggregating and disseminating correct information. »
Gemini prediction launch details
The initial list of markets is: will the Federal Reserve maintain the recently reduced interest rate; what would be the price of Ethereum by the end of the year; and whether President Donald Trump would release any of Jeffrey Epstein’s files before December 20.
Gemini customers in the United States can now trade USD events on their Gemini Exchange account. The prediction app is available on web, iOS and Android. Customers can also redeem at no cost for a limited time as part of the introductory promotion.
The Winklevoss twins, Cameron and Tyler, founded crypto exchange Gemini in 2014. Gemini first applied for a designated contract market (DCM) license in 2020, according to The block. At the time, it was unclear from the app whether Gemini was looking to launch a market prediction app.
Regulatory Trends Shift in Favor of Prediction Market Trading
In recent history, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has been cautious and conservative in its dealings with prediction exchanges. They banned Polymarket from operating in the United States in 2022, on the grounds that they were offering contracts to American clients without proper approval from the CFTC. The commission also fought Kalshi’s bid for congressional oversight contracts, ultimately dropping its appeal in that case in May 2025.
Gemini was also the target of CFTC charges in 2022, alleging the company made false or misleading statements about its Bitcoin futures contract in 2017 to help launch it. This dispute resulted in a settlement in which Gemini Trust paid a civil penalty of $5 million.
Under the second Trump administration, the CFTC softened its position. President Trump has positioned his administration as an ally to the crypto and prediction markets. Gemini CEO Tyler Winklevoss congratulated Trump after winning their DCM license.
“Today’s approval marks the culmination of a 5-year licensing process and the start of a new chapter for Gemini,” Tyler Winklevoss said, according to Coin Officebefore thanking the president for “ending the Biden administration’s war on crypto.”
“Prediction markets have the potential to be as large as, or larger than, traditional capital markets. Acting Chairman Pham understands this vision and its importance,” said Gemini Chairman Cameron Winklevoss. ” Unlike his predecessor, the interim president (Caroline) Pham has positioned the CFTC as a pro-business, pro-innovation regulator that will position America to lead in these new and exciting markets.
Gemini Titan is now diving into the pool of CFTC-regulated sites legally allowed to offer event contracts, a market that CoinDesk says has thus far been “dominated by Kalshi.”
