Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOGL), gave a light-hearted and indirect response to the growing debate over Gemini 3, Google’s next major language model – and it had major implications for prediction markets on Polymarket.
The comment comes as speculation intensifies on Polymarket, where traders now estimate a 69% chance that Google will launch the model on November 22.
Prediction Markets Bet on Gemini 3 Released Next Week $ good pic.twitter.com/cyvrJSMp62
– Literacy (@wintermoat) November 14, 2025
Polymarket has become the largest prediction platform for betting on real-world events. Users invest on everything from product release dates and Bitcoin (BTC) price fluctuations, to election results and Federal Reserve decisions.
The market has become a place where traders try to gauge major technology moves before they happen and Gemini 3 is the latest target.
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What does Sundar Pichai’s “thinking face” emoji signal about Gemini 3?
Participants exchange event contracts using cryptocurrency. The platform recently raised $2 billion from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, bringing its valuation to $9 billion.
Prediction markets are also attracting attention at Google. The company confirmed that Google Finance will soon display data from Polymarket and Kalshi, giving users a way to check market-based probabilities and see how traders assess real-world events.
As speculation increases around a possible Gemini 3 launch next week, Sundar Pichai kept his response brief. He posted two “thinking face” emojis on X and offered no other explanation.
– Sundar Pichai (@sundarpichai) November 14, 2025
His short response indicates he is holding back on details, likely to avoid fueling the growing media hype.
Nevertheless, the next version is important for Google. The company is under pressure to close the distance between it and the companies that currently dominate the AI field, particularly OpenAI.
The entire industry is following this launch with real interest, as the response to Gemini 3 will determine Google’s ability to compete at the highest level.
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How reliable are prediction markets compared to surveys and expert forecasts?
Business Insider and other media report that the model is expected before the end of the year.
They claim that Google is aiming for better coding output, stronger reasoning capabilities, and more refined media generation.
The update is also expected to include an improved version of the company’s Nano Banana image system.
Pichai has already announced that Gemini 3 will arrive this year. He presented it as part of Google’s efforts to close the distance with OpenAI after a long period where ChatGPT dominated public attention.
This highlights the big question: are prediction markets open to the influence of high-profile figures?
Two decades of academic research has shown that prediction markets generally produce fairly accurate predictions. In many cases, they have even outperformed polls and expert surveys.
But more recent studies highlight a risk. They show that a single large trade, made at the right time, can change the price in automated market maker systems in a way that is not fully reflected.
The effect can persist, especially when other traders treat this price action as real information rather than noise.
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The article Google CEO Responds to Polymarket’s Bet: Are Prediction Markets Vulnerable to Celebrity Manipulation? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
