The main dishes to remember:
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Institutional flows increase, but the interests of retail and the rankings of the APP stores remain unusually low.
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A weakening of the US dollar or the adoption of major ETFs could push the cryptographic market capitalization well above its previous summits.
Merchants are still impatiently awaiting the start of a super cryptographic cycle, which is a deviation from the traditional four -year winning cycle after each Bitcoin (BTC).
Since 2021, a certain number of analysts have suggested a new paradigm in which the cryptography market would rise 400% beyond its previous heights. Take, for example, X user Cryptokaleo, who recently published on the “real” super cycle.
Even if the hypotheses shared by Cryptokaleo are exact, it is still far too early to conclude that the market has entered a super cryptographic cycle. The current total capitalization of 3.4 billions of dollars is only 29% above the peak of 2.65 billions of dollars recorded in November 2021.
Until now, this projection remains dissatisfied, but there are certain factors to look for which would confirm the start of a super cycle.
Weakness of the US dollar, growth of crypto ETF and strategic bitcoin reserves
One of these catalysts would be the index of the US dollar (DXY) lowering below 95, a level given for the last time in November 2021. A continuous weakness of the dollar compared to other important fiduciary currencies would signal an increasing discomfort of investors with the American budgetary situation. In this case, part of the 24.7 billions of dollars of American treasurers held by the public could pass into alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Another major potential engine is the rapid expansion of the stock market negotiated fund (ETF). Despite the recent impetus, the current 190 billion dollars in assets linked to cryptography under management are always negligible compared to traditional asset classes. By way of comparison, the three largest ETF S&P 500 alone control an active asset of $ 2 billions of dollars.
Despite the initial enthusiasm, the strategic reserve plan for the government of the US government remains vague. If the Trump administration accumulates at least 200,000 BTC, which could considerably change the feeling of the market. A similar effect could come from business cash benefits by technology giants such as Google, Apple or Microsoft.
Interest of retail investors and media threshing on the theme of the sector
The participation of retail investors also plays an essential role in the outbreak of a supercycle. The search volumes for conditions such as “buy bitcoin” and “buy crypto” remained flat for five months and are well below their summits of November 2024. Likewise, Coinbase and Robinhood applications have slipped into the American App Store rankings in the last three months.
While institutional capital has taken the lead in this cycle, the FOMO focused on retail is still used as fuel for parabolic growth. Another key signal would be a resurgence in the accounts of the Altcoin sector – whether motivated by AI tokens, casino parts or traditional tokens featuring cats and dogs.
Currently, the market capitalization even is $ 68.5 billion, down from the top of $ 140.5 billion reached in December 2024, according to CoinmarketCap data.
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These scenarios remain speculative and spend unpredictable macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, including the ability of the American federal reserve to avoid a recession and the evolution of global trade relations.
However, the closer the market is close to these conditions, the more an overvoltage exceeds 13.2 billions of dollars in market capitalization, which represents an increase of 400% compared to the peak of November 2021.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and must not be considered as legal or investment advice. The points of view, the thoughts and opinions expressed here are the only of the author and do not reflect or do not necessarily represent the opinions and opinions of Cointellegraph.
