Top line
Bitcoin prices could swing significantly depending on the results of the presidential election, analysts at a Wall Street research firm warned Monday, as former President Donald Trump positions himself as the pro-crypto candidate.
Trump speaks at a Bitcoin conference in Nashville this summer.
Key facts
Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote Monday that the election would have a “near-term impact on cryptocurrency sentiment” and the price of the dominant cryptocurrency Bitcoin, which sits at around $68,000 , down from last week’s seven-month high of more than $73,000.
Bitcoin can reach $80,000 to $90,000 in the next two months if “pro-crypto candidate” Trump wins the election, Chhugani predicted, shattering the previous record of nearly $73,800 set in March.
And if Vice President Kamala Harris prevails, Chhugani warned that bitcoin “could test” a low of $50,000, a level not seen since February, representing a drop of more than 25% from prices from Monday.
Chhugani noted that Bitcoin’s potentially imminent decline is a result of the Biden administration’s “hawkish” stance on regulating the crypto industry.
Surprising fact
The highly bullish Bernstein Group retained its $200,000 price target for bitcoin by the end of 2025 regardless of the election outcome, explaining that the “genie is out of the bottle” for it. $1.4 trillion digital asset with bitcoin spot exchange traded funds (ETFs). final boost reinforcing the value of decentralized currency.
Key context
Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick wrote last month that he expects bitcoin to end this year at $75,000 if Harris wins and $125,000 if Trump does. Price targets for bitcoin’s highly volatile prices are arguably less reliable than similar forecasts for other asset classes, such as stocks, because bitcoin prices move based on the market’s perception of its case. future use, rather than based on profits or other more fundamental root causes. An avowed Bitcoin skeptic while in the Oval Office, Trump has gained support from crypto executives like billionaires Marc Andreessen, Cameron Winklevoss and Tyler Winklevoss this cycle as he has familiarized himself with the industry during the election campaign and tapped longtime Bitcoin investor JD Vance as his running mate. .
Tangent
In recent months, bitcoin prices and Trump’s election odds on blockchain-based election betting platform Polymarket have moved almost one step at a time (see chart below). Bitcoin prices hit a seven-month high on the same day Trump’s election odds hit a multi-month high, and fell over the weekend as Harris’ betting market election odds jumped.
Further reading
