Key points to remember:
- Iran has limited maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to 15 ships per day as part of the April 7 U.S.-Iran ceasefire brokered by Pakistan.
- The limit imposed by the IRGC kept Brent crude at nearly $94.75 and WTI at $93 as of April 9, 2026, thus maintaining volatility in the global energy market.
- US Vice President JD Vance will lead talks in Islamabad scheduled for April 10, where Iran’s demands for an asset freeze and a UN resolution will be directly pressed.
Global oil supply at risk as Iran imposes daily limit of 15 ships passing Hormuz
Russia’s official TASS news agency reported the restriction on April 9, citing an unnamed senior Iranian official. The cap represents a sharp reduction from pre-conflict traffic levels, which typically carried between 100 and 150 ships per day across the 21-mile chokepoint between Iran and Oman.
The strait carries around 20% of the world’s maritime oil, as well as large volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilizers. Even under ceasefire conditions, actual ship movements remained minimal, with only four ships tracked on 8 April and traffic described as almost non-existent until 9 April.
All transits through the waterway now require Iran’s prior approval and direct coordination with Iran’s armed forces. The ships must follow a navigation chart issued by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, routing vessels closer to the Iranian coast, a precaution attributed to mines planted in traditional shipping lanes during the conflict.
The Iranian source told TASS there would be “no return to the pre-war status quo.” Additional conditions of the ceasefire include the unfreezing of Iranian assets within two weeks, a formal end-of-war resolution through the United Nations (UN) Security Council, no increase in US troop deployments, and compliance with uranium enrichment conditions. Iran has warned it will resume combat operations if these demands are not met.
The current crisis dates back to late February 2026, when the United States and Israel carried out strikes against Iran. Tehran responded by attacking merchant ships, laying mines and blocking the strait to ships linked to the United States, Israel and allied countries. Oil benchmarks soared above $100 a barrel in the weeks that followed, with physical crude prices reaching nearly $150 in some markets.
Pakistan negotiated the ceasefire and US President Donald Trump called Iran’s 10-point proposal a “viable basis” for continued negotiations. Talks are planned in Islamabad starting around April 10, with Vice President JD Vance leading the US delegation. The ceasefire has already been strained by Israeli military activity in Lebanon and by disagreements over the terms of Hormuz.
As of 11:30 a.m. Eastern on April 9, Brent crude stood at $94.75 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $93. Both benchmarks retreated from wartime highs above $100 but rose throughout the session as the fragility of the ceasefire weighed on markets. European governments opposed the conditions imposed by Iran.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told parliament on April 9 that the full reopening of the strait was of “vital interest” to Italy and the European Union, warning that any Iranian rights or restrictions would lead to “unforeseeable economic consequences.” British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper called for the waterway to be reopened without charges and led diplomatic actions in dozens of countries, stressing that Iran should not be allowed to impose charges and that Lebanon should be included in the ceasefire framework.
Gulf states, including the United Arab Emirates, have rejected any militarization of the strait or the imposition of tolls. France has announced preparations for naval escort missions to facilitate safe passage. Trump has publicly declared that the strait is “OPEN and SAFE,” although shipping companies and insurers have yet to act on that assurance.
Reports have cited potential Iranian toll demands of up to $2 million per ship, with some even noting acceptance of bitcoin and stablecoins. Analysts say the fees likely conflict with customary international maritime law, although enforcement mechanisms remain limited. Oman has formally rejected any revenue sharing agreement.
Shipowners and freight operators remain cautious despite the ceasefire announcement. War risk insurance premiums remain high and operators are waiting for clearer signals before restoring a normal route across the strait.
The Islamabad talks will determine whether the 15-ship limit is maintained, expanded or collapsed altogether. Iran has left little ambiguity about its position. The central question of the next round of negotiations remains whether the United States and its partners will be able to negotiate a sustainable return to open transit.
