On December 9, Google CEO Sundar Pichai unveiled “Willow,” a quantum computing chip that he said represents a crucial step in the quest for scalable quantum systems, raising immediate questions about its implications for cryptographic security long term of Bitcoin. While quantum computing has long promised breakthroughs, Willow’s reported ability to dramatically reduce error rates and handle previously unmanageable computing tasks has reignited debate over its implications for cryptography, particularly security layers. fundamentals of Bitcoin.
In a statement posted to He suggested that early tests indicate that Willow solved a standard quantum problem in less than five minutes, a task that he said “would take a leading supercomputer 10 to 25 years.”
Introducing Willow, our new cutting-edge quantum computing chip with a breakthrough that can reduce errors exponentially as we use more qubits, solving a 30-year challenge in the field. In benchmark testing, Willow solved a standard calculation in less than 5 minutes that would…
– Sundar Pichai (@sundarpichai) December 9, 2024
The potential of quantum computing to solve problems at unprecedented speed has long been discussed in the context of cryptography, whether classical systems or systems based on elliptic curves. Bitcoin relies on two cryptographic pillars: ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) to secure private keys and SHA-256 for hashing. Both are considered robust compared to current classical computers. However, the arrival of powerful, error-corrected quantum machines could upend this assumption by making classical cryptographic puzzles trivial to solve.
Is Google’s Willow a Threat to Bitcoin?
Shortly after Willow’s unveiling, Ben Sigman, CEO of Bitcoin Libre, offered a measured response on ‘Today. He noted that mining Bitcoin’s elliptic curve signatures using Shor’s algorithm would require “over 1,000,000 qubits,” orders of magnitude larger than Willow’s 105.
As for Bitcoin’s second layer of security, SHA-256, Sigman points out that breaking it would require “millions of physical qubits,” a threshold far higher than Willow or any other current quantum system can approach. He concluded: “Bitcoin crypto remains SAFU…for now. »
Charles Edwards, founder and CEO of Capriole Investments, warns that ignoring the accelerating trajectory of quantum computing could be a big mistake. Although he acknowledges the current gap between current quantum hardware and the massive scale needed to hack Bitcoin, Edwards cautions against complacency.
“The current level of skepticism toward quantum computing reminds me of the average person who spends 10 minutes researching Bitcoin and then dismisses it as worthless. Quantum computing is real. It will change the world. MASSIVELY. QC will break Bitcoin if we don’t upgrade it. The threat is real,” warns Edwards.
He points to research that suggests just 2,500 logical qubits – well below the often cited “millions of qubits” – could be enough to challenge SHA-256. The difference between physical and logical qubits is crucial. While physical qubits are the building blocks, logical qubits only appear after substantial error correction and resource overhead. Building a system with thousands of logical qubits currently requires a much larger number of physical qubits, potentially millions.
Additionally, Edwards references various studies and forward-looking timelines, suggesting that many quantum computing companies, including some publicly traded and providing forward-looking guidance, believe they could reach around 3,000 logical qubits in just five years.
He describes the current skepticism about quantum rhythm as akin to an early rejection of the value of Bitcoin. Edwards stressed that while the exact timeline remains uncertain – whether in 3, 5, 10 or 15 years – it would be unwise to delay action.
“Best case scenario, once we agree on a quality control-proof crypto upgrade for Bitcoin, it will likely take a year for everyone (most) to access it. By further reducing turnaround time, we must act,” Edwards writes.
To fuel the debate, Matteo Pellegrini, CEO and founder of The New Orange Pill App, pointed out that while the number of 2,500 logical qubits may seem small, getting there is no small feat.
He noted: “The referenced study does indeed discuss the number of logical qubits potentially needed to break SHA-256. While it is true that only about 2,500 logical qubits could be enough to break Bitcoin’s encryption (e.g., deriving a private key), achieving this in practice involves a considerable leap in error correction, gate consistency and fidelity time. The physical qubits required could number in the millions due to current inefficiencies.
This gap between the number of physical and logical qubits highlights why some experts remain calm: going from a few hundred physical qubits (like Willow’s 105) to millions is a colossal engineering undertaking. However, Edwards warns: “Most companies are on track to achieve this in less than 5 years. »
At press time, BTC was trading at $97,492.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
