Bitcoin price appears to be off to a good start, having spent most of the new year above the psychological $90,000 mark. Although the leading cryptocurrency has slowed in recent days, significant bullish intent has been seen in the market so far in 2026.
However, this latest display of optimism somewhat contradicts recent predictions that the price of Bitcoin could be at the start of a bear market. This begs the question: could the bull run be about to restart, or is BTC price just witnessing a relief rally?
BTC’s Recent Bounce Is Just a Bear Market Relief Rally – Analyst
In a January 9 post on Platform The market expert anchored his answer on on-chain and technical pricing data.
First, Maartunn acknowledged that the recent rise was inevitable, as the Bitcoin price found support around the ETF’s realized price at $85,000. This price level represents the average cost base of BTC ETF investors and, as expected, buyers defended their positions, leading to a price rebound.
This phenomenon is highlighted by another on-chain metric, the Coinbase Premium Gap, which measures the difference between the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase and on global exchanges. According to Maartunn, the indicator began to rise just after New Year’s Eve, signaling a resumption of buying activity from US-based investors.
Additionally, spot exchange-traded funds began experiencing strong inflows within days of this Coinbase Premium Gap surge. “This feels more like a strategic buy/portfolio rebalancing (new quarter, new year) than emotional FOMO,” Maartunn added.
Source: @JA_Maartun on X
However, the crypto analyst noted that the rally only saw the price of Bitcoin climb as high as $94,000 before being rejected. Essentially, this suggests that the flagship cryptocurrency does not possess the bullish strength needed to break through this resistance.
Additionally, Maartunn mentioned that Bitcoin is still trading below crucial on-chain levels such as short-term holder realized price and whale realized price, both of which act as important overhead resistance.
The on-chain analyst noted that on-chain observations suggest this recent bounce is just a bear market relief rally, not a trend continuation – even though the price is up about 10%. Only a clear breakout and sustained close above $94,000 would indicate Bitcoin price’s strong intention to rebuild a bullish structure, Martunn concluded.
Bitcoin Price at a Glance
At the time of writing, the BTC price stands at $90,360, reflecting a decline of almost 1% over the past 24 hours.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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