Bitcoin is attempting to climb above the $72,000 level as the market searches for direction after weeks of volatile and largely sideways price action. While buyers have recently pushed the asset higher, the $72,000 area continues to act as a key resistance level, limiting bullish momentum as traders evaluate both macroeconomic conditions and on-chain signals.
Amid this technical battle, a new study from CryptoQuant analyst XWIN Research Japan highlights a notable shift in Bitcoin’s long-term valuation metrics. The report focuses on the market value to realized value ratio (MVRV), a widely used on-chain indicator designed to assess whether Bitcoin is trading above or below its historical cost.
The MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized capitalization, which represents the aggregate value of coins based on the price at which they last moved on-chain. By analyzing this relationship, the indicator helps determine whether the average investor is currently holding unrealized profits or losses.
According to the latest data, Bitcoin’s 365-day MVRV ratio has fallen to levels similar to those seen in late 2022 following the collapse of the FTX exchange. During this period, intense market stress caused many investors to incur unrealized losses, compressing average returns well below historical norms and marking one of the most difficult phases of the previous market cycle.
MVRV models suggest a possible undervaluation phase
The CryptoQuant report notes that previous periods of depressed MVRV readings have often preceded strong rallies in Bitcoin price. After the strong market tension following the collapse of FTX in late 2022, Bitcoin entered a similar valuation zone. Over the next three months, assets grew by around 67%, marking the start of a broader recovery phase.
Historically, such trends tend to appear when the MVRV ratio falls significantly below its long-term averages. At these levels, many investors hold coins at a loss, which often reduces selling pressure as weaker hands have already exited the market. In these environments, long-term investors frequently begin accumulating positions as the perceived risk-reward balance improves.
However, the current market environment differs from conditions seen in 2022. The previous downturn was largely due to internal shocks within the crypto sector, including major bankruptcies and liquidity crises. Today, broader macroeconomic forces play a more dominant role, particularly high interest rates and tighter global liquidity conditions.
At the same time, the market structure has evolved. Institutional participation has increased significantly thanks to the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs and increasing corporate accumulation strategies.
Although MVRV does not guarantee an immediate price reversal, the report suggests that the current valuation compression could represent a critical phase for assessing Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
Bitcoin tests resistance near $72,000 after February rebound
The chart shows that Bitcoin is trading around the $72,000 level as the market attempts to recover from the sharp correction that occurred earlier in 2026. After reaching highs above $120,000 during the previous cycle phase, BTC entered a sustained downtrend marked by a sequence of lower highs and increasing selling pressure over several months.
The largest move in recent structure occurred in early February, when Bitcoin experienced a rapid sell-off that briefly pushed the price towards the $60,000 region. This decline was accompanied by a sharp rise in trading volume, suggesting forced liquidations and aggressive selling in the market.
Following this capitulation-like event, Bitcoin began to stabilize and form a short-term recovery structure. Over the past few weeks, the price has gradually increased, regaining the $70,000 zone and approaching the resistance level of $72,000.
However, the technical structure still reveals significant challenges to be overcome. Bitcoin remains below its major moving averages, which continue to decline and signal that the broader trend has not yet fully reversed.
The $72,000 to $74,000 area now represents a critical resistance range. A successful breakout above this area could open the door to a broader recovery towards higher levels, while a rejection here could lead to further consolidation as the market continues to seek directional momentum.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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