The Bitcoin supercycle theory emerged during the last bull run, when the price was expected to reach $100,000. Naturally, expectations dimmed when the bear market occurred, but with the price of Bitcoin now above $100,000, supercycle beliefs are in full swing once again. Analyst Weslad points this out in an article, showing that the BTC price is actually far from its true peak if the supercycle is still in play.
Why the main trend indicator is important
The Bitcoin Main Trend Indicator is perhaps the most important indicator right now when it comes to determining the direction the price might be heading. This indicator has its level set at around $40,000, giving Bitcoin a wide margin of what is possible when it comes to maintaining its bullish momentum.
Continuing to trade above the main trend indicator suggests that Bitcoin price is still firmly in bullish territory and the supercycle is still in effect. In this supercycle theory, the 3rd wave is still ongoing and has not yet reached its peak.
As Weslad explains, if this wave 3 is completed, the price of Bitcoin will reach $172,000. This would mean an increase of over 50% from the current price level and, ultimately, the lifting of calls at the top of the cycle is already underway.
However, this all depends on Bitcoin price remaining above the main trend indicator. Indeed, a break below the indicator triggers a bearish movement for the digital asset which could be the start of the next bear market.
What to expect for Bitcoin if wave 3 ends
The completion of the 3rd wave would mean that the supercycle trend is still in play, and once the $172,000 of this 3rd wave is reached, it moves directly into the more bearish wave 4. This is where the price of Bitcoin should start to fall.
The crypto analyst expects wave 4 to completely erase the gains of the 3rd wave, bringing them back towards $107,000 again. However, this is only the precursor to the fifth and final, most bullish wave.
Weslad expects the latest wave to push the price of Bitcoin up to $300,000, citing the 2020-2021 bull cycle as an example. Just like now, BTC price had started testing a dynamic trendline and was still able to reach new all-time highs despite market exhaustion. Thus, it is possible that Bitcoin completes the five waves and reaches $300,000 before moving into the bear market.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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