Key takeaways
-
Discussions about the XRP ETF have moved from Crypto Twitter to Wall Street trading desks.
-
Analysts estimate that capital inflows could exceed $1 billion in the first few months.
-
SEC rule changes have streamlined crypto spot fund listings.
-
Approval is not guaranteed, but momentum is quickly building.
Discussions about a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) have moved from Crypto Twitter to actual trading desks.
Two factors motivate him. First, ETF specialists Nate Geraci and Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan say the market is underestimating demand for a spot XRP ETF. Geraci warned that investors are “severely” underestimating flows, and Hougan said the fund could reach about $1 billion in assets in its first months of trading.
Second, the US market infrastructure for spot crypto funds has evolved. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has adopted generic listing standards that shorten the approval process for certain spot crypto ETFs, and exchanges have already begun listing altcoin products under the new framework.
None of this guarantees approval for XRP, but it explains why the conversation has become serious.
What is a spot XRP ETF?
A spot XRP ETF would hold the XRP with a qualified custodian and issue shares that track the fund’s net asset value through the standard creation and redemption process. This structure is important because it allows exposure to XRP in brokerage accounts, advisor model portfolios, and retirement platforms, providing familiar reporting and tax treatment.
This is different from a futures-based product, which tracks derivatives rather than the asset itself and can deviate from spot prices. The SEC’s September 2025 rule change did not approve all crypto ETFs, but it created a uniform starting line instead of one-off approvals.
Where are the US approvals?
In mid-September 2025, the SEC adopted generic listing standards allowing major exchanges to list certain spot crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) under a uniform set of rules instead of one-time approvals. The change streamlined the registration process but did not remove regulatory oversight or review of ineligible products.
Then came the government shutdown in October, which slowed staff evaluations. Despite this, a handful of spot altcoin products, including Litecoin (LTC) and Hedera (HBAR), have advanced along existing pathways. These should be considered borderline cases, not a blanket endorsement.
For XRP, several well-known issuers have already filed or signaled their intention. Deadlines may still change as the SEC considers three familiar questions:
-
Monitoring: Are markets controllable and resistant to manipulation?
-
Custody: Is the preservation of assets solid and assured?
-
Investor protection: Will the prices and information disclosed hold up in the real world?
In short, the road is open, the products are in the queue, but no US spot XRP ETF has received approval yet.
How big could the flows be?
The bullish argument is based on three factors:
-
Distribution: Advisors prefer ETFs to opening exchange accounts for clients. An ETF unlocks the registered investment advisor and retirement channels.
-
Infrastructure already built: Authorized participants, market makers and monitoring arrangements established for Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) ETFs may extend to other spot products.
-
A separate thesis: XRP’s long-standing narrative has centered around cross-border payments and settlements, providing allocators with a narrative distinct from Bitcoin’s “digital gold.”
Based on this setup, Geraci and Hougan say first-wave demand could exceed expectations, potentially surpassing $1 billion initially. This is a projection, not a promise, but it explains why trading desks are already modeling scenarios.
What could be holding him back?
Even with generic standards, approval is not automatic. The SEC may still question whether XRP spot markets are sufficiently resistant to manipulation and whether supervisory sharing is robust. It can also check whether custody and insurance arrangements are adequate and whether pricing sources are reliable across all locations.
The government shutdown has created backlogs that could delay decisions until later in the year. The route is shorter than it was in 2023-2024, but it still has checkpoints.
Get exposure to XRP today (before any US ETF)
Investors outside the United States already have access to physically backed ETPs that directly hold XRP.
Two of the largest are 21Shares XRP ETP (AXRP), listed on the Swiss Stock Exchange, and CoinShares Physical XRP, available on various European exchanges. These are not American ETFs; these are locally managed ETPs with different investor protections and tax treatment.
US investors can also purchase XRP on compliant cryptocurrency exchanges, but this route involves custodial decisions, counterparty risk, and fragmented trading platforms.
So, is XRP “the new Bitcoin?” »
That’s not the right way to think about it.
Bitcoin’s investment story centers on scarcity and macro-hedging, while XRP’s focuses on payment infrastructure and rapid settlement. If an XRP ETF is launched, it will not replace the role of Bitcoin. This would expand the menu for advisors seeking thematic allocation on payments within traditional accounts.
Prices and liquidity will always depend on the underlying cash markets and the ETF’s ability to closely track them. Creation and redemption efficiency, spreads and depth of market makers will all play a role.
XRP’s ETF Moment: Closer, But Not Here Yet
Indeed, Wall Street’s interest in an XRP ETF is not just clickbait. The mechanisms are now familiar, the distribution channels are in place and credible analysts believe demand could surprise on the upside.
But the SEC still must approve the product, and the timeline may change based on personnel changes and market quality reviews. If you’re following this story, separate the chances of approval from the investment case: monitor the cases, understand how the ETF would hold and price XRP, and be clear about the differences between US ETFs and non-US ETPs available today.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision.
