Crypto analysts expect the Jan. 20 inauguration event to be mostly ceremonial and accounted for, and not market-moving.
The swearing-in of Donald Trump has sparked an active debate within the crypto community, with market experts questioning whether the inauguration event would trigger price movements for major digital assets. Industry experts who expressed their views ahead of the surprise launch of the official Solana-based TRUM meme coin were conservative.
Well-established digital assets including Solana, Bitcoin and XRP saw impressive gains following the Republicans’ triumph over the Democrats. Experts attribute the rise to the crypto market already pricing in the inauguration.
Minimal movement since swearing in
The general director of markets at YouHodler, Ruslan Lienkha, ruled out any price movement in the event of a breakout on January 20. The executive added that Monday’s event appears to be factored in because it is primarily a ceremony and not a market movement.
Other observers point to the possibility of major tokens driving the news as Bitcoin rallied sharply to a new high in the hours leading up to Trump’s inauguration. Intergovernmental blockchain expert Anndy Lian says the market has already priced in the positive CPI data. The author of the cryptocurrency excludes the inauguration of Trump, introducing any immediate and revolutionary policies. Some are likely to show a pullback as short-term traders take profits.
The conservative view resonates with harsh warnings issued by former BitMex chief Arthur Hayes. The crypto exchange’s co-founder warned that BTC could see a sharp sell-off after Trump returns to the Oval Office.
Although not as pessimistic as Bitmex Hayes, Philipp Pieper, director of Swarm, indicated that the inauguration provides little new information to the market. He added that any price movement from Monday’s event would often result in noise.
Analysts agree that the situation could change as Trump begins working with traders optimistic about the president’s anticipated statements. eToro Market Manager Simon Peters admitted to being closely drawn to monitoring implementations within the Trump administration.
Political and legal development is key to rising prices
Peters added that a recent statement from Trump denounced rising interest rates. This suggests the new president could push to lower rates. Easing financial conditions will provide the tailwind needed to push cryptoasset prices higher.
Analysts have indicated that the implementation of promised crypto-related executive orders will trigger an upward trajectory for digital assets this year.
Pieper indicated that a general rise in crypto prices is coming as regulations become clearer and the market exploits the tangible updates the Trump administration will make.
Pieper predicts that regulatory and legislative developments will likely combine to strengthen macroeconomic indicators, particularly U.S. inflation. He added that inflation and rate sensitivity are key factors influencing market liquidity and money supply. Maintaining more liquidity would cause asset prices to rise.
Are Trump’s policies a zero-sum game?
Although the pro-crypto stance and promise of a crypto-friendly macroeconomy present opportunities for a likely price rise, certain policies could indirectly hamper the sector.
Youhodler’s Ruslan Lien says intensifying trade wars and new tariffs could keep inflation high. This could put downward pressure on the entire financial ecosystem.
The possibility of such unfavorable outcomes is reason to abandon premature expectations of major moves from Monday’s event. The new administration must implement its promises so that the market responds to reality.
Monday’s event could leave several small-cap tokens vulnerable to volatility, particularly politically themed meme coins. Lienkha indicated that MAGA and DOGE tokens could rise because they are subject to emotional trading and not substantive factors.
Pieper warns that small-cap tokens could easily plunge in the face of low liquidity levels. He explained that the challenge could affect tokens largely based on sentiment. They exhibit extreme volatility and it is difficult to support the underlying value.
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