Over the next three weeks, a jobs report, a combined GDP and inflation release, and a CPI report will arrive quickly.
All these texts are read in the same context: a conflict in the Middle East led by the United States which has already forced the Fed and the ECB to maintain their monetary policy, and an oil price which keeps inflation at the top of all political discussions.
The conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran – ongoing
The United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28, triggering what became the most significant geopolitical shock to global markets since the early weeks of the Russia-Ukraine war. The Strait of Hormuz (through which around 20% of the world’s oil and gas passes) has always been the central point of pressure, with Iran threatening to close it completely in response to further escalation.
The macroeconomic consequences were direct. The Federal Reserve kept rates between 3.50 and 3.75 percent at its March 18 meeting, explicitly acknowledging that the conflict makes its inflation and employment mandates more difficult to evaluate simultaneously.
The ECB met the following day, March 19, kept its deposit facility rate at 2.0% and revised down its Eurozone growth forecast for 2026 to 0.9% while revising inflation to 2.6%, directly attributing both decisions to the war’s impact on energy prices. Indeed, two of the world’s largest central banks saw their policy directions disrupted by a single geopolitical event.
Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States and Iran have had “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities” and asked the Department of Defense to postpone strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, subject to the success of ongoing discussions. Iran has not officially confirmed any dialogue. The five-day window creates a genuine diplomatic opening, but the pause is conditional and the broader conflict remains unresolved.
For traders, the key variable is oil and its impact on inflation. Any further escalation that once again threatens the Strait of Hormuz transit would immediately reassess energy inflation expectations and, with them, the rate cut timeline that risk assets have been monitoring throughout the quarter. Conflict is the condition under which every data release in the coming weeks will be read, including the NFP, PCE, and CPI events covered below.
Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD and ETH/USD spot, BTC and ETH perpetual futures and cross exposure on 300+ contracts.
Monthly expiration of BTC/ETH options (Deribit) — Friday March 27, 08:00 UTC
On the last Friday of each month, large volumes of Bitcoin and Ethereum options settle on Deribit at 08:00 UTC. This month’s expiration comes during a period of compressed but recovering price action. BTC has formed an ascending bottom since the start of the conflict while facing resistance in the $70,000 range, and placement volume in the derivatives market has been high throughout.
Monthly options expirations are important for active traders because they reshape the intraday hedging landscape. As contracts settle, market makers adjust gamma and delta exposures, and the hours following settlement often see a change in direction as repositioning into April contracts begins. Whether this expiration acts as a clearing event (allowing the market to find direction) or extends the current range depends on the position of spot prices relative to the concentration of open interest at settlement.
Traders in the BTC and ETH spot and futures markets on Kraken Pro should note the settlement time as 08:00 UTC Friday morning.
Looking Ahead: Next Week and Beyond
Three events in the first two weeks of April collectively represent the most concentrated macroeconomic data window of the first quarter, and all three will be compared to the state of the conflict and the oil market at that time.
American NFP — Friday, April 3, 8:30 a.m. ET
This is the most important data point to come. The February jobs report showed a contraction of 92,000 nonfarm jobs, the first negative monthly figure in years. This result occurred during the most acute phase of the conflict and reflects a labor market that slowed until the second half of 2025.
The March number arrives on April 3. If the report confirms a second consecutive contraction, the stagflation debate comes to the fore: deteriorating employment alongside oil-driven inflation creates the specific environment in which the Fed has the least room to act. A politically constrained Fed (unable to cut rates due to inflation, unable to hold due to deteriorating growth) provides a more complex backdrop for risk assets than a simple rate cut narrative.
If March payrolls prove resilient, attention will shift to whether the five-day pause in conflict will translate into something more lasting and whether the Fed can return to a gradual easing policy toward the end of 2026. Either outcome will have significant implications for how risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, are positioned ahead of the April FOMC.
Third estimate of fourth quarter 2025 GDP + PCE — Wednesday, April 9, 8:30 a.m. ET
Two data points in one version. The BEA’s third and final fourth-quarter 2025 GDP estimate arrives alongside the February PCE release. The second estimate of GDP had already revised growth sharply downward to 0.7% annualized compared to 1.4% during the initial publication; the third estimate will confirm or adjust this figure.
It is important to be specific about what the simultaneous PCE version represents. This is data from February, collected before the start of the conflict on February 28. They will not reflect the oil shock, the March FOMC decision, or any other post-conflict developments.
What it offers is a pre-conflict net inflation benchmark: the last reading of the Fed’s preferred price gauge before energy markets are disrupted. Traders will use this to assess the amount of inflationary pressure that already existed in the system before the oil move, which, in turn, will indicate how much additional pressure the conflict might have added.
US CPI – Friday April 10, 8:30 a.m. ET
One day after GDP and PCE, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the March CPI. February recorded +2.4% year-on-year. The March figure is the first that will begin to reflect changes in energy prices due to the conflict, although the most acute phase of the oil boom occurred towards the end of February and March, so the full impact may not yet be visible in this release. Markets will closely monitor energy’s contribution and assess whether underlying inflation begins to show side effects.
The back-to-back April 9-10 releases represent the last major inflation and growth data before the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, and how they are released will largely determine the tone of that decision.
Spot, margin and futures markets on Kraken Pro are relevant in all three versions. 8:30 a.m. ET print times typically trigger immediate volatility in the BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and correlated markets.
Final context
The next three weeks are structured as follows:
- Friday’s options expiration resets crypto derivatives positioning amid real geopolitical uncertainty
- Next week’s jobs report tests whether the deterioration in the U.S. job market is a simple data point or a trend.
- The following week brings consecutive PCE and CPI figures which will directly condition the April FOMC.
Traders who have thought about their exposure to each of these events (and the context of conflict underlying each) are better placed than those who react to each release in isolation.
Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
