The crypto market faced a violent downturn as Ethereum fell below the $3,100 level while Bitcoin lost the critical $100,000 mark, triggering widespread liquidation and fear-driven selling. Panic quickly spread through the market and sentiment turned sharply bearish as traders rushed to reduce exposure, price targets disappeared from social media and risk assets experienced a cascade of outflows. In times like these, emotions often trump fundamentals – and this week was a clear reminder of that dynamic.
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However, even in times of high fear, not all market participants behave in the same way. Some notable players have begun to shift positions, hinting that strategic positioning may already be underway despite the panic. Among them is the famous Anti-CZ Whale, a trader who attracted attention after aggressively shorting ASTER immediately after Changpeng Zhao publicly announced that he had purchased ASTER. This trade paid off as ASTER briefly rose, then fell sharply, generating this whale tens of millions in unrealized profits.
Today, in a notable change, this trader moved from shorting Ethereum to going long, signaling renewed conviction despite the market’s emotional breakdown. As fear reaches fever pitch, savvy actors may already be preparing for the next phase – raising the question: is this a capitulation… or an opportunity?
The whale turns to ETH as the market panic reaches its peak
According to Lookonchain, the famous anti-CZ whale made a notable portfolio change, going from shorting Ethereum to going long worth 32,802 ETH (~$109 million). Today, the Whale maintains a short ASTER position of 58.27 million (~$59.7 million), signaling the belief that ASTER weakness may continue despite recent volatility.
Meanwhile, the whale holds a short position of 1.99 billion kPEPE (~$11.3 million), a bet against speculative memecoin flows during times of uncertainty. Meanwhile, a short long of 130,566 DOGE (~$21.5K) appears more symbolic than directional, likely serving as a hedge or sentiment indicator rather than a major conviction play.
The most notable move is clearly ETH buying, signaling that the whale views Ethereum’s fall below $3,100 as oversold rather than structurally bearish. Taking such a position at the height of fear suggests an expectation of recovery once forced liquidations subside and liquidity stabilizes. While overall sentiment remains fragile, this shift implies that sophisticated capital may already be positioning itself for an eventual rebound, reinforcing ETH’s role as a commodity asset even amid aggressive market tensions.
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ETH Price Technical Outlook: Testing Key Support as Panic Selling Eases
Ethereum is trying to stabilize after a sharp fall below the $3,500 zone, with the price now reacting around the $3,300 zone. This level closely aligns with the 200-day moving average (red line), making it a critical support area for bulls to defend. The recent candle pattern shows high volatility and high selling volume, confirming that panic-driven liquidations are the main force behind the move – rather than a fundamental change in trend.
This aggressive push followed a series of lower highs throughout October, signaling weakening momentum ahead of the breakout. The 50 and 100 day moving averages (blue and green) are falling and are currently above, adding pressure and reinforcing the short-term bearish structure. A recovery above the 50-day MA would be an early sign of strength, but Ethereum must reclaim the $3,500 zone to regain bullish control.
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Volume increased dramatically, suggesting surrender behavior – often near cycle pivot points. The wick near $3,150 suggests that buyers moved aggressively at the lows, consistent with the accumulation dynamics seen among sophisticated traders. If ETH holds above the 200-day MA and builds a base here, it could trigger a relief rally. However, an extended break below $3,150 risks further decline towards $2,900 as liquidity pockets remain thin below current levels.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
