Now that the Bull Run is dead, will Powell make further rate cuts? End of Fed tightening nears as labor market slows

Now that the uptrend is over, will Fed Chairman Jerome Powell make further rate cuts? This crash proved two things:

1. Always DCA in Bitcoin
2. Hold and assume it’s a lifetime investment

Meanwhile, Powell signaled this week that the central bank may be nearing the end of its three-year effort to end massive stimulus unleashed during the 2020 pandemic. Speaking before the National Association of Business Economics in Philadelphia, Powell said the Fed may soon conclude reducing its balance sheet.

“We could approach that point in the coming months,” Powell said, noting that policymakers have taken a “deliberately cautious approach” to avoid a repeat of the 2019 money market freeze that forced emergency intervention.

Here is the best Case: The US government returns to life within 7-12 days. Here’s what you need to know:

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Will Powell make further rate cuts? The Fed nears the end of quantitative tightening

The Fed’s portfolio peaked at nearly $9 trillion at the height of the pandemic and now stands at about $6.6 trillion, according to FRED. This trickle-down, known as quantitative tightening (QT), reduced banks’ excess reserves and raised questions about whether liquidity conditions could tighten too sharply again.

Powell did not confirm a rate cut in October, but did not deny it either, saying that “The economic outlook has not changed much” since the last Fed meeting. Markets took this as tacit confirmation that another rate cut might be coming, but .cwp-coin-chart svg path { Stroke-width: 0.65 !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-graph-container.positive svg path: nth-of-type (2) { trait: #008868 !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.positive { color: #008868 !important; background-color: transparent !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-popup-holder .cwp-coin-trend.positive { border: 1px solid #008868; border-radius: 3px; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.positive::before { border-bottom: 4px solid #008868 !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-price-holder .cwp-coin-trend-holder .cwp-trend { background-color: transparent !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-graph-container.negative svg path: nth-of-type (2) { trait: #A90C0C !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-popup-holder .cwp-coin-trend.negative { border: 1px solid #A90C0C; border-radius: 3px; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.negative { color: #A90C0C !important; background-color: transparent !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.negative::before { border-top: 4px solid #A90C0C !important; }

Bitcoin
BTC

$111,674.63


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Bitcoin
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Price

$111,674.63

0.97% /24h





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$65.17 billion



Price 7d

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reacted negatively to the news, down 0.5%.

Here’s the best-case scenario (we need good news, right?):

• Once the lights come back on and the government shutdown is over, the SEC resumes its efforts to gain approval for altcoin ETFs, the narrative everyone has been waiting for.
• Meanwhile, gold falls, the dollar index retreats, and the Fed cuts another 25 basis points on October 29.
• Somewhere between the headlines about shutdowns and the flood of cash, the Clarity Act also passed in the fourth quarter.

And while crypto traders overthink every macro move, crypto is doing what it always does best: melting down with no one watching. Maximum pain. Maximum irony… if you’re sitting on the sidelines, that is.

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What about the US shutdown? Government puts pressure on labor market and data flow

The ongoing federal government shutdown, now in its second week, has suspended the release of key economic data, including the September jobs report. Still, private estimates from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup suggest initial jobless claims reached around 235,000 last week, up from 224,000 previously.

“Excluding any shutdown noise, claims still appear reasonably weak,” added JPMorgan’s Abiel Reinhart.

To end the shutdown, Democrats DEMAND $1.5 trillion in new partisan spending.

This is an unserious proposition made by unserious people.

Here are some of the things they use to hold the government hostage pic.twitter.com/IIyQz16t1P

– President Mike Johnson (@SpeakerJohnson) October 15, 2025

The labor market, even if it does not collapse, seems frozen in what economists call a “no hiring, no firing” equilibrium. Meanwhile, Wall St. firms remain cautious amid trade frictions, automation adoption and political uncertainty as 2025 approaches.

US economic data indicates fragile dynamics, what’s next?

Job offers are down 9% year-on-year, salaries are stagnating at nearly 4.1% and inflation continues to rise. With the Fed’s upcoming big data week, CPI on October 15, PPI on October 16, wages on October 17, this market appears dead.

But it’s often when you’re most frustrated, bored, and angry (the same as frustrated, but more apropos) that things melt down.

Powell’s signals are fading: QT could end and rate cuts are on the table again. Stocks have rallied, Treasury yields have fallen, and Bitcoin is hovering above $112,000. We should still see a new BTC ATH in Q4.

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