Key notes
- YZi Labs supports the new platform using UMA’s Optimistic Oracle for dispute resolution and rapid verification of on-chain settlements.
- Prediction markets have reached $28 billion in volume in 2025, with weekly peaks above $2.5 billion as traditional exchanges enter the sector.
- Probable integrates with PancakeSwap’s existing DeFi ecosystem to compete with established platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
PancakeSwap has introduced “Probable,” a new on-chain prediction marketplace on BNB Chain incubated within its ecosystem and backed by YZi Labs, formerly Binance Labs, marking the DEX’s latest attempt to expand beyond spot trading and liquid staking.
The platform was announced on December 16, 2025 and will offer no trading fees at launch to attract early adopters in an increasingly competitive industry. Probable will allow traders to speculate on outcomes related to crypto assets, global events, sports, and regional markets, while using UMA’s Optimistic Oracle to settle markets and verify results on-chain.
Looking forward to incubating @0xProbable with @PancakeSwap.
A sleek, no-fee prediction market launched on @BNBCHAIN.
One of the hottest mainstream crypto sectors in 2025 just welcomed a powerful new player.
Why it matters 🧵👇
– YZi Laboratories (@yzilabs) December 16, 2025
How is probability positioned
Probable will launch as an exclusive fully on-chain prediction venue on BNB Chain, with stablecoin-listed markets and settlement managed by UMA, aiming to minimize disputes while maintaining fast resolution times.
PancakeSwap notes that Probable will integrate with its existing interface and user base, giving it access to one of the largest DeFi communities on BNB Chain and creating new sources of activity alongside perpetual, staking, and launchpad products.
All of these features are intended to compete with existing prediction marketplaces such as Polymarket and Kalshi, both of which have significant partnerships and funding in 2025.
Prediction markets explode in 2025
Crypto prediction markets have grown strongly in 2025 as new platforms challenge early incumbents such as Polymarket and expand beyond purely crypto-native topics.
Industry data shared by YZi Labs reports cumulative volume of over $28 billion for 2025, with weekly peaks above $2.5 billion and monthly highs near $10 billion, highlighting how event-based trading has become a visible DeFi segment rather than a niche product.
Monthly volume prediction markets. Source: Keyrock
Traditional crypto exchanges, such as Coinbase, Gemini, Crypto.com and others, and large fintechs have also entered the market, launching YES/NO licensed products and integrated prediction interfaces tied to stablecoin rails. Analysts tracking the space project said the on-chain prediction infrastructure could support a broader derivatives market, potentially reaching tens of billions in open interest over the next decade if current usage continues.
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Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article is intended to provide accurate and current information, but should not be considered financial or investment advice. Because market conditions can change quickly, we encourage you to verify the information for yourself and consult a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
José Rafael Peña Gholam is a cryptocurrency journalist and editor with 9 years of experience in the industry. He has written in leading media outlets like CriptoNoticias, BeInCrypto and CoinDesk. Specializing in Bitcoin, blockchain and Web3, he creates news, analysis and educational content for global audiences in Spanish and English.
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