Polymarket traders remain cautious on Bitcoin

Polymarket traders are taking a cautious view of Bitcoin’s price outlook this year, even though many analysts expect a stronger rise in 2026.

On Polymarket, the chances of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 this year are only 21%. Confidence decreases as price targets increase. Traders give BTC a 45% chance of hitting $120,000, a 35% chance of hitting $130,000, and a 28% chance of hitting $140,000. The most likely outcome, according to the market, is for Bitcoin to reach $100,000, which has an 80% probability and is considered the safest bet.

This caution may be linked to the waning influence of Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle. In the past, Bitcoin followed a clear pattern of halving events, helping traders predict major price movements. However, BTC ended 2025 in the red, raising doubts about whether this cycle will work. With the old trend collapsing, traders appear less confident about aggressive upside targets.

Rate Cut Hopes and Clear Rules Support Bitcoin’s Rise

Despite the bearish odds posted on Polymarket, many analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects. Many expect 2026, rather than this year, to be the real bull year.

Macroeconomic factors could also support higher prices. U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to soon appoint a new Federal Reserve chairman, fueling expectations of lower interest rates. Lower rates would likely benefit risky assets like Bitcoin. This expectation has already pushed gold and silver to new all-time highs, while cryptocurrency prices have remained mostly stable.

On the regulatory front, major US crypto bills, such as the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, are expected to provide clearer rules. This could attract more institutional investors to the market.

Looking ahead, firms such as Standard Chartered, Strategy, and Bernstein predict that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2026. More bullish analysts, like Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, see BTC rising as high as $200,000 to $250,000.

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