Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that macroeconomic indicators suggest that altcoins will reduce Bitcoin’s (BTC) dominance in the coming months.
In a new YouTube video, Cowen directs his 807,000 subscribers to the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, which tracks signals that a recession may be on the horizon.
The indicator flashes when “the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) increases by 0.50 percentage points or more from its lowest level in the previous 12 months,” according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The indicator reached 0.53 percentage points in July.
Cowen explains:
“The fact is that it gives a signal. Which means that whether you think of a recession or not, it means that looser monetary policy is coming. That’s what it means. And if looser monetary policy is coming, then Bitcoin dominance is going to peak relatively soon. It could have happened theoretically already, I still think it will be September at the earliest, maybe December at the latest. That’s my general view and we’re starting to see some of the reasons why that’s happening.”
The job market is showing signs of weakness. Look at job openings per unemployed person. They’re back to pre-pandemic levels. They haven’t cut rates yet. I mean it’s probably only going to get worse until they cut rates.
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