Despite the highly anticipated US Spot ETF Solana (SOL) going live, the products have not prevented a broader outflow of capital from the altcoin during the crypto rout in late 2025.
During the same period, the realized cap, or overall capital in the SOL markets, fell from almost $97 billion to $88.8 billion. This represents approximately $8 billion in capital outflows despite the ETF’s debut.
This has raised doubts as to whether quoted The $1,000 price target set by some Solana insiders was achievable.
Source: Glassnode
How high can SOL climb?
Amid massive capital outflows, SOL Price fell 50% from the late 2025 high of $253 to $127. Additionally, the market appears to be pricing in a four-year cycle which, if validated, would make 2026 bearish.
According to prediction site Kalshi, the market expects SOL to end this year between $100 and $149 rather than above $450. There was a 75% chance that the altcoin would reach $100 or more by the end of 2026.
For a price target above $450, the probability was 11%, highlighting the pessimistic outlook for a rally to $500, let alone the psychological level of $1,000.
According to Standard Chartered, the $500 level could be reached by 2029. For VanEck, however, the altcoin could climb above $3.2k in the same period, citing ETF inflows.
But some of the potential long-term bullish catalysts, notably the Firedancer, have not materialized as expected. note Ryan Berkmans.
Source: X/Ryan Berckmans
Berckmans added that the Solana validator crisis could further harm the overall decentralization and trust of the chain. According to him, these factors could encourage Ethereum to outperform SOL in the medium and long term.
The options market suggests…
Meanwhile, in the options market, traders were seeking upside exposure for near-term expiries at press time, as highlighted by the slight recovery of the 25-Delta Skew at maturities of one week and one month.
Source: Laevitas
In other words, traders’ market sentiment was neutral to bullish for SOL in the short term.
However, caution was expressed in the medium term, as illustrated by the negative Delta Skew of 25 on the 3 and 6 month maturities. This resulted in increased demand for puts rather than calls for downside protection.
In conclusion, the $1,000 target was quite an ambitious target for SOL, and it may remain elusive in 2026. In the short term, there is potential for recovery, but only if ongoing capital outflows are reversed.
Final Thoughts
- SOL’s $1,000 target seemed overblown, with the market pricing in an 11% chance of surpassing $450 in 2026.
- More than $8 billion in capital has been withdrawn from the SOL market despite the ETF’s debut, and could still derail a strong rebound unless it is reversed.
