Key points to remember:
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ETH ETFs have opened up access, but flows remain cyclical.
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SOL’s plumbing is ready: CME futures are live, with options scheduled for October 13 (pending approval).
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The SEC’s generic standards now allow for faster listings of spot commodity ETPs beyond BTC and ETH.
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For SOL to outperform ETH, it will need sustained creations, tight coverage, true on-chain usage, and continued developer momentum.
It’s true that Ether (ETH) already has a head start in the exchange-traded fund (ETF) race: Spot Ether ETFs began trading on July 23, 2024, attracting approximately $107 million in net inflows on its first day and opening a traditional route to investors through brokers and retirement accounts.
However, Solana Market Infrastructure (SOL) is catching up. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched Solana futures on March 17, 2025, with options scheduled for October 13.
In September 2025, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission adopted “generic listing standards” that streamline how exchanges can list spot exchange-traded products (ETPs), potentially widening the door beyond Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether.
Additionally, outside of the US, SOL already trades regulated investment packages through 21Shares in Europe and 3iQ in Canada.
With this access already in place, the question becomes whether a US SOL ETF can fuel sustainable demand that allows Solana to outperform Ether on price and fundamentals.
Before we get into that, let’s set some context.
What ETH ETFs Have Changed and What They Have Not Done
Spot Ether ETFs began trading in the United States on July 23, 2024. On the first day, they recorded approximately $1 billion in trading volume and approximately $107 million in net inflows, opening a mainstream channel for investors such as registered investment advisors (RIAs) and institutions. However, this still lags behind the Bitcoin ETF’s debut in January.
Since then, the flows have been cyclical. Until mid-2025, ETH experienced periods of net creation punctuated by capital outflows. In late August and mid-September 2025, reports showed renewed strength, with multi-week inflows into Ether products increasing total crypto assets under management (AUM). In short, ETFs have improved access, but they have not eliminated market cycles.
At times in 2025, Ether has outperformed many large-cap crypto assets, supported by steady ETF demand and visible institutional and treasury accumulation. This trend suggests that while ETFs do not change core network fundamentals, they can influence which asset dominates during capital turnover phases.
One design choice remains important: US ETH ETFs are launched without staking, which limits their income potential compared to directly holding native ETH. The SEC is actively reviewing proposals to allow staking, but, since October 2025, has delayed decisions on several issuers. If staking is allowed – even partially – it could change the trade-offs between ETF holdings and direct ownership.
Did you know? U.S. exchanges publish an indicative net asset value (iNAV) approximately every 15 seconds, allowing traders to see where an ETF should be valued over the course of the day.
Solana today: use, growth and risks
In Q2 2025, Solana generated over $271 million in network revenue, marking its third consecutive quarter leading all Layer 1 (L1) and Layer 2 (L2) chains. In June, data showed that Solana matched the combined monthly active addresses of all other top L1s and L2s – strong indicators of usage intensity.
In January 2025, Solana processed $59.2 billion in peer-to-peer (P2P) stablecoin transfers, a sharp rebound from the lows of late 2024. The supply of USDC on Solana stands at approximately $9.35 billion, while the network’s total stablecoin supply more than doubled in early 2025 from $5.2 billion. dollars in January to $11.7 billion in February.
Despite this, Ethereum still held the majority of the value moved by stablecoins year-to-date – around 60% as of mid-2025 – showing that Solana’s gains are significant but not yet dominant.
Cost and speed remain the main attractions: sub-cent fees, 400 millisecond block times, and high throughput have made Solana a hub for decentralized exchanges (DEX) and perpetual futures business – and a focal point of the 2025 memecoin boom. This volume supports liquidity but also concentrates flows into segments speculative.
Two structural risks are worth monitoring.
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Reliability: A five-hour outage on February 6, 2024 required a coordinated reboot and customer patch (v1.17.20).
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Rules: Previous US SEC complaints have referred to Solana as an unregistered security – a characterization disputed by the Solana Foundation. Results in this area remain highly policy dependent.
Did you know? FMC schedules daily, monthly and quarterly expirations of SOL optionsexpanding coverage menus for ETF market makers.
What a US SOL ETF Would Likely Change
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Access and flow: Approval would open SOL to traditional brokerage and retirement channels used by registered investment advisors (RIAs). This reduces operational friction for dispatchers and expands the buyer base beyond crypto-native sites.
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Market making and hedging: Listed derivatives give Authorized Participants (APs) and market makers the tools to hedge creations and redemptions, as well as execute basis or relative value trades. These mechanisms help keep ETF prices close to their NAV and support liquidity from day one.
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Regulatory track: The SEC’s “generic listing standards” broaden the path beyond BTC and ETH if sponsors meet the rules.
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Demand signals outside the United States: Already, the Canadian 3iQ Solana Staking ETF (TSX: SOLQ) and the European 21Shares Solana Staking ETF (SIX: ASOL) show that regulated investment envelopes for Solana can attract investor interest.
Did you know? In Europe, cryptocurrencies cannot be included in Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (UCITS) ETFs, so issuers use ETPs instead. This is why “ETP” appears on the SIX and London Stock Exchange (LSE) tickers.
Can SOL really outperform ETH?
The case of the bull (six to 12 months after approval)
A timely US spot SOL ETF with strong early net creations could surpass Ether in total return.
Two key levers:
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Wider access: RIAs and brokerages gain visibility thanks to new generic listing standards.
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Improved market mechanisms: Tighter spreads and greater capacity through AP hedging via CME Solana futures and listed options.
The base case
Even if a SOL ETF launches strong, flows may return to general risk appetite. Ether retains a structural institutional advantage – thanks to its longer history, greater familiarity with allocators, and established ecosystem. Weekly fluctuations in fund flows in crypto reflect how relative performance can be volatile rather than decidedly SOL-oriented.
The case of the bear
Deadline delays or eligibility issues under the US SEC could dampen expectations. Alternatively, liquidity could decrease and APs could manage smaller portfolios despite the availability of derivatives, thereby limiting creations. In this scenario, Solana would underperform Ether, which already benefits from a more mature distribution.
It is also worth noting that some regulators have expressed concerns about reducing case-by-case oversight under generic listing standards, thereby adding policy uncertainty for assets beyond Bitcoin and Ether.
What to watch out for
If a US spot SOL ETF is approved, the real story could be what happens next.
The key signals to watch for are simple. Are creations and buyouts showing persistent demand? Does CME’s open interest and options activity increase liquidity? Do onchain metrics like active users, fee revenue, stablecoin settlement, and developer growth hold up beyond speculative explosions? If these needles move together, the chances of SOL surpassing ETH increase sharply.
A Solana ETF would remove a major access bottleneck and arrive with a stronger market infrastructure than previous cycles. Yet Ether has already proven it can attract billions via ETFs while anchoring the institutional conversation.
ETH remains the benchmark and its flows – although cyclical – demonstrate its sustainability. Solana’s actual outperformance will depend less on hype and more on whether ETF inflows translate into sustained adoption of the chain.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision.
