Main to remember
Bitcoin is still on 1.4 billion of dollars of unpaid profits. With a key macro catalyst out of the table, is conviction more upside down that starts to crack?
A central day has just closed. The federal reserve maintained the rates unchanged at 4.25 to 4.5%. It was Online with expectations after the sticky base of June 0.3%.
The break of the “drop” of Powell rates puts the price of Bitcoin on hold – is the rally finished?
As expected, Bitcoin (BTC) remained linked to the beach below the resistance of $ 120,000, consolidating in a tight band. On the surface, it seems that the bulls absorb volatility well.
But under the hood, long -term holders began to cut the exhibition. Could it be that the LTHs are otherwise macro winds in which the wider market has not yet price?
Powell’s break will stretch through the curve
As Ambcrypto noted, the Lean Hawkish of the Fed was already underway. No new catalyst, no volume expansion, just chopped near the resistance.
That said, Fed Chair Jerome The Powell line on a potential 25 bps cut in September stood out:
“We have made no decision on September.”
It was all it was needed to reproduce the curve. The September Cup ratings collapsed at 41% (against> 90% a month ago).
Meanwhile, Zero cuts for all 2025 increased to 25% after the FOMC.
Source: Kalshi
In short, the expectations of the softening of fourth quarter policies are disabled.
No surprise there either. Trump’s tariffs only added a macro uncertainty, undercoating the Bitcoin break potential. In turn, compressing your asymmetry upside down Q4.
Think of September 2024.
The Fed launched the softening with a cup of 50 BPS, and BTC rallied from a base of $ 60,000 to $ 73,000 by the end of October. With this catalyst now sheltered, Bitcoin could remain hungry for liquidity towards the third quarter.
Bitcoin paper wins at a record level, but the slimming of conviction
Bitcoin structurally maintains intact post-FOMC, but the interns of the market soften. The Fear & Greed index is withdrawn, indicating that risky appetite fades on the sidelines.
The chain flows confirm the lag: long -term holders (LTH) have distributed 207,000 BTC in the last 30 days, reporting strategic deadlines among high conviction cohorts.
Meanwhile, the total unrealized profit (Aggregate NUPL) reached a summit of $ 1.4 billion of dollars. It is a lot of latent supply. And without fresh catalysts, some may start to arrive on the market.
Source: Glassnode
Obviously, there are a lot on the line.
But with backing Powell of a September Cup and the markets under the prevailing bets, the liquidity fund is dried up.
Without this fuel, Bitcoin could be stuck below the resistance, while taking profit comes into play and the conviction is cool in the third trimester.
