Joseph Lubin, co-founder of Ethereum and CEO of Consensys, used an X Post on June 19 to deliver what could be his largest evaluation thesis to date for Ether. After welcoming a research note that compared ETH to “digital oil”, Lubin argued that the author “is not optimistic enough” on the ultimate economic imprint of Ethereum.
“It is a very strong work in many ways,” he started. “Probably all those who read this work will learn something and will be delighted by the thesis. But this high -level thinking piece has a major structural defect – a fairly deep structural defect: it is not optimistic enough. ”
Ethereum could exceed world GDP
Lubin’s assertion is that Ether will underpin a “hybrid society of human-machine intelligence” whose creation of value aggravates far beyond the scope of the global economy of 113.8 billions of dollars today. “It is not a big leap,” he wrote, “to suggest that the residing and crosses Ethereum, which will constitute a large part of web3 – the reddecentrality – will be more important orders than the world’s world GDP.
He revived the long -standing dichotomy of Bitcoin -Versus -Ehereum – BTC as “Gold 2.0”, ETH as the native asset of a programmable economy – but pushed it further. “While the BTC must be valued as Gold 2.0,” reiterated Lubin, “the ETH should be valued on the scale of the emerging decentralized global economy”. This framing, he said, must now be extended to take into account an explosion in charge of AI in digital activity which “will develop largely on decentralized rails”.
Lubin devoted half of his message to a thought experience for the first time on June 4. “If there was a magical product of diamond confidence and you could apply tokens of this diamond at each transaction, agreement or relationship … What value would it add?” 10% on world GDP? 100%? 1,000%?… The Ticker of this merchandise is ETH. ”
In his opinion, the unusual decentralized validator set of Ethereum makes ether “the stallion of confidence of the highest level or gold driving on the planet”. This bonus of “trust of confidence”, superimposed at the top of the “digital oil” demand for transaction costs, is what Lubin thinks can propel the entirely diluted ETH value far beyond any historical asset reference.
Verification of reality – The numbers of Today
For the moment, the gap between aspiration and market capitalization remains yawning. The Ether float of approximately 120 million pieces exchanged $ 2,525 on June 19, giving the network a market value close to $ 307 billion and representing less than 0.3% of world production. However, even this float is narrowed: more than 35 million ETH – around 29% of the offer – is now locked in proof contracts, a summit of all time received this week.
Lubin considers such a tightening on the side of the offer as an overview, not a highlight. “These two models,” he wrote in connection with digital and trust-market, “will lead to a giant monetary bonus for Eth”.
The question of whether ether can “overshadow” world production plausibly – a threshold that no active is compared – does not raise an open question. Lubin’s rhetorical diamond, however, sharpens the issues: in the future where programmable confidence becomes a main production entrance, evaluating ETH simply as software gas can prove it, to borrow its sentence, “not bullish enough”.
At the time of the press, ETH exchanged $ 2,523.
Star image created with dall.e, tradingView.com graphic
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