Ripple
The CLARITY Act, which would codify the classification of
Senator Bernie Moreno has publicly stated that if the bill does not reach the full Senate by May, midterm election dynamics would push it off the calendar for the remainder of 2026. This makes the next three weeks the most important legislative window XRP has faced this year.
- Price level: XRP is trading at $1.34 as of April 6, down 63% from its July 2025 high of $3.65, with Q1 2026 marking its worst quarter in eight years.
- Legislative clock: Senate Banking Committee markup scheduled for late April; Senator Moreno warned that failure to move forward by May would effectively kill the 2026 bill.
- Bullish case trigger: The banking committee’s approval unlocks between $4 billion and $8 billion in XRP ETF inflows according to Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick, with a price target above $1.60.
- Bear Case Floor: A stall last May, combined with Bitcoin falling below $60,000, puts XRP at risk of sliding towards $0.82, according to 24/7 Wall Street analysis.
- Chances of passage: Kalshi had chances of passage in 2026 of around 69% as of March 20; Polymarket is currently between 63 and 66%, reflecting the remaining uncertainty around DeFi arrangements and timing.
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What the CLARITY Act actually does — and why April is the only window
The CLARITY Act (HR 3633) passed the House by a bipartisan vote of 294-134 on July 17, 2025, assigning primary oversight of digital products to the CFTC while limiting the SEC’s jurisdiction over assets eligible for the new framework.
The Senate Agriculture Committee advanced its version on January 29, 2026, but the Banking Committee – chaired by Tim Scott – has yet to make a markup, with unresolved disputes over DeFi regulatory provisions and the treatment of tokenization delaying the timeline.
The Senate returns from Easter recess on April 13, and Scott’s committee has a targeted markup window in the last two weeks of April.
The stablecoin yield dispute that stalled previous negotiations appears to be resolved: Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks reached a principled compromise on March 20 that prohibits passive yield on stablecoin balances but allows activity-based rewards tied to payments and platform usage.
Senator Cynthia Lummis confirmed at the Chamber of Digital Commerce’s Blockchain Summit that the DeFi provisions were finalized, projecting committee markup in late April, followed by a floor vote in mid-2026.
The honest read on the planning math: Alex Thorn of Galaxy Research reported that with only 18 work weeks remaining before the Oct. 5 midterm recess, each week of delay compresses floor review time to the point where adoption in 2026 becomes structurally implausible without Banking Committee clearance by the end of April.
The SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity on March 17 – but this classification is an interpretive publication, not law.
A future administration could reverse the trend. Banks and large asset managers will not commit capital on a large scale based solely on an administrative decision. The CLARITY Act would make product classification permanent federal law, and this distinction is the entire mechanism behind the bull case.
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Ripple XRP Could Rise Above $1.60 If Clarity Clears
This whole Ripple $1.60 and aiming higher.
The key detail that most people forget is that it’s not just about hype around regulation, it’s about certainty, because right now institutions can look at Ripple deployment.
If this approval is delayed until after May, the whole story quickly weakens, because without it, XRP is just following Bitcoin, and with BTC already moving sideways, that means there is no strong independent move, and if macro pressure hits again, the decline opens up quickly.
Ripple’s timeline change itself is also telling, with expectations already pushed back, which is usually a sign that things aren’t going as well behind the scenes as they appear publicly.
So right now it all comes down to this late April window, because if the committee moves, momentum builds quickly, but if it stops, it goes from a catalyst-driven breakout setup to just another fork with fading hype.
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The Senate has 3 weeks to pass the CLARITY law: the most important month in the history of Ripple XRP? appeared first on Cryptonews.
