The analysts of VanEck, Matthew Sigel (Head of Digital Asset Research) and Patrick Bush (Senior Investment Analyst), have just published their 10 predictions for the cryptocurrency market in 2025. Here is a summary:
- The crypto bull market will peak in the mid-term in Q1 and set new highs in Q4.
We believe the cryptocurrency bull market will persist through 2025, reaching its first peak in the first quarter. At the top of the cycle, we project Bitcoin (BTC) be valued at approximately $180,000And Ethereum (ETH) exchange above $6,000.
After this first peak, we expect a Withdrawal of 30% of BTCwith altcoins is experiencing more severe declines of up to 60% as the market consolidates over the summer. However, a recovery is likely in the fall, with major tokens regaining momentum and reaching all-time highs by the end of the year.
- The United States adopts Bitcoin as a strategic reserve and increases the adoption of cryptocurrencies.
The election of Donald Trump has already provided significant momentum to the cryptocurrency market, with his administration appointing crypto-friendly executives to key positions, including Vice President JD Vance, Michael Waltz, National Security Advisor, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Paul Atkins, President of the SEC, Jelena McWilliams, Chairman of the FDICAnd HHS Secretary RFK Jr.among others.
These appointments mark the end of anti-crypto policies, such as the systematic suppression of cryptocurrency companies and their founders, and the beginning of a policy framework that positions Bitcoin like a strategic asset.
- The value of tokenized securities exceeds $50 billion.
Cryptocurrencies promise a better financial system through increased efficiency, decentralization and transparency. We believe that 2025 will be the year tokenized securities take off. There are already approximately 12 billion dollars in tokenized securities on blockchains, mainly tokenized private credit securities listed on the semi-authorized market Provenance Blockchain Since Figure.
In the future, we see immense potential for launching tokenized securities on public blockchains.
- Stablecoin’s daily settlement volumes reach $300 billion.
Stablecoins will evolve from a niche role in cryptocurrency trading to become a central part of global commerce. By the end of 2025, we predict that stablecoins will settle daily transfers of 300 billion dollarsequivalent to 5% of current DTCC volumes, up by 100 billion dollars daily in November 2024. Adoption by big tech companies (like Apple And Google) and payment networks (Visa, MasterCard) will redefine the payments economy.
Beyond trade, the remittance market will explode. For example, transfers of stablecoins between United States and Mexico could grow 5xSince 80 million dollars has 400 million dollars monthly, driven by speed, cost savings and growing confidence. Stablecoins will serve as Trojan horse for blockchain adoption.
- On-chain AI agent activity exceeds 1 million agents.
We believe one of the most compelling narratives that will gain enormous traction in 2025 is AI Agents. These specialized bots help users achieve results like “maximize returns” or “drive engagement on X/Twitter.”
AI agents optimize results by autonomously adapting their strategies. Protocols like Virtuals already provide tools for anyone to create AI agents for chain tasks. Virtuals gives non-experts access to decentralized AI contributors, such as tuners, dataset providers, and model developers, allowing everyone to create their own AI agents. This will lead to a massive proliferation of agents, which creators can hire to generate income.
- Bitcoin Layer 2 (L2) reaches 100,000 BTC in total value locked (TVL).
We are closely following the emergence of Bitcoin Layer 2 (L2) blockchains, which hold immense potential to transform the Bitcoin ecosystem. These solutions improve the scalability of Bitcoin by enabling lower latency and higher transaction throughput. In addition, Bitcoin L2 introduce smart contract functionalitypaving the way for a robust system DeFi ecosystem built around Bitcoin.
- DeFi hits all-time highs with $4 trillion in DEX volumes and $200 billion in TVL.
Despite record volumes in decentralized exchanges (DEX)the total value of DeFi locked (TVL) leftovers 24% below its peak. We expect DEX trading volumes to exceed 4 trillion dollars in 2025, capturing 20% spot trading volumes on centralized exchanges (CEX), fueled by the proliferation of AI-related tokens and new decentralized consumer-oriented applications.
Tokenized securities and high-value assets will catalyze the growth of DeFi, adding new liquidity and utility. As a result, we expect DeFi’s TVL to exceed 200 billion dollars by the end of the year, reflecting the growing demand for decentralized financial infrastructure in a digital economy.
- The NFT market is recovering with transaction volumes reaching $30 billion.
The 2022-2023 bear market has hit NFT sector difficult, with transaction volumes plummeting 39% from 2023 and a staggering figure 84% starting in 2022. As fungible token prices began to recover in 2024, most NFT lagged until a turning point in November.
Notable projects like Chubby penguins has moved into mainstream brands via collectible toys, while Miladys has gained cultural significance within Internet subcultures. Likewise, the Bored Monkeys Boat Club (BAYC) has evolved as a cultural force, attracting attention from brands, celebrities and mainstream media.
As cryptocurrency wealth rebounds, we expect new wealthy users to diversify into NFTs, viewing them not only as speculative investments, but also as assets with lasting cultural and historical significance.
- DApp tokens reduce the performance gap with L1 tokens.
A consistent theme of the 2024 bull market has been the significantly better performance of Layer 1 (L1) blockchain tokens compared to a decentralized application (dApp) tokens. For example, the MVSCLE Indexwho tracks smart contract platforms, won 80% since the beginning of the year, while MVIALE Index late application tokens with a 35% earn.
We expect this dynamic to change later in 2024 with the launch of a wave of innovative dApps, offering valuable new products that enhance their respective tokens. Key trends include AI-powered applications And decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN)which hold immense potential to capture the interest of investors and users.
This shift highlights the growing importance of utility-product-market fit in determining the success of dApp tokens in the evolving cryptocurrency landscape.
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