Key takeaways
Is TRX fundamentally weak?
Network activity and exchange balances showed no panic selling, leaving room for a potential near-term recovery.
What does the relative strength of TRX/BTC imply?
TRX/BTC gained while BTC pairs of other top assets fell, showing relative resilience in TRON. Investors should, however, remain cautious.
TRON (TRX) fell to a low of $0.30 on October 11, falling 10.98% during Friday’s sell-off.
Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) showed little on-chain TRX movement, meaning the price movement was mainly due to trading. This idea is supported by reports that tokens not listed on centralized exchanges have not crashed as hard.
Whatever the exact reason that led to such a violent altcoin spill, holders and survivors need to make their next plans.
TRX holds on while its peers bleed
Source: CryptoQuant Insights
In an article on CryptoQuant Insights, analyst CrazzyBlockk observed that TRON was an exception during the widespread sell-off. Other top crypto assets like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) have seen their value drop rapidly compared to Bitcoin (BTC).
This is evident in the chart that compares the performance of BTC pairs for TRX, ETH and SOL.
On October 11, TRX/BTC gained 2.1%, ETH/BTC fell 3.86%, and SOL/BTC fell 8.27%.
Source: TRX/BTC on TradingView
Investors and traders should remember that the TRX/BTC pair still has a bearish structure on the daily chart and was at a key support level dating back to late July.
Of course, Bitcoin’s strength relative to other leading assets is encouraging, but caution is advised.
TRON’s resilience in the face of panic
Source: TRX/USDT on Trade View
In a recent report, AMBCrypto explained why a bullish breakout to $0.37 was likely.
Despite the sell-off, the $0.3 support was defended. As the daily chart shows, this support level had been in place since July.
The bearish structure on the daily chart was confirmed when TRX was unable to climb above $0.353 (white) and was forced to fall below the low of $0.33 set on October 2.
The 20- and 50-day EMAs have been trending lower, and the Money Flow Index (MFI) has remained below 50, showing momentum favoring sellers. Thus, a drop below $0.3 could mark the start of the next downward leg.
Weekly Outlook Still Favors Long-Term Holders
Source: CryptoQuant Insights
Even though the structure was bearish on the daily time frame, it was bullish on the weekly time frame. Therefore, swing traders should not rush to sell short.
In an article on CryptoQuant Insights, analyst Darkfost drew attention to the fact that TRON was only 12.57% away from its all-time high.
Since the market correction in March, TRX did not see a decline greater than 10% until October. According to the analyst, this reflects the resilience of the altcoin.
In fact, even after Friday’s wipeout, TRX’s broader market stability stands in stark contrast to weaker layer 1 assets.
Traders are watching Bitcoin’s next move as BTC action on October 13 could dictate a near-term direction. If BTC stabilizes, TRON could quickly rebound towards the $0.33 to $0.35 area.
