A sitting US congressman has banned his entire staff from trading in prediction markets, making him one of the first members of Congress to formalize such a ban.
Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) issued the office-wide policy effective March 26, 2026, covering all staff in the legislative, communications, district, and operations teams.
This decision comes as Washington realizes a problem it helped create. Anonymous traders have recorded suspicious gains on politically sensitive events – election results, regulatory decisions, geopolitical hotspots – and the finger is pointed squarely at government insiders with access to non-public information. The pressure on Congress to act is growing rapidly.
Rep. Seth Moulton bans staff from using prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket
–CNBC (@CNBC) March 25, 2026
The Mechanism: How Congressional Insider Trading Works in Prediction Markets
Here’s how the exploit works. Prediction markets allow you to buy contracts tied to actual outcomes. Will this bill pass? Will interest rates rise? A member of Congress who knows a bill is about to die in committee, before the public, can buy contracts betting on its failure and cash out as soon as the news breaks.
Rep. Seth Moulton called him directly. Prediction markets have become a playground for corrupt insiders who bet on election results, wars and the deaths of public figures. This framework is at the origin of a whole wave of legislation.
Prediction markets are one of the most exciting innovations in financial markets. However, for too long, the @CFTC failed to provide insight into these markets used by millions of Americans. It ends today.
Read the actions taken by the agency here
…
– Mike Selig (@ChairmanSelig) March 12, 2026
…As of late March 2026, at least six bills targeting prediction markets were circulating in Washington. The bipartisan PREDICT Act was introduced by Reps. Nikki Budzinski and Adrian Smith. It would prohibit members of Congress, senior officials, the president, the vice president and their families from trading on political or policy outcomes, with fines equal to 10 percent of the value of the transaction plus full forfeiture of profits to the U.S. Treasury.
Rep. Ritchie Torres introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Forecasting Markets Act and called it not a ceiling but a floor. Senators Chris Murphy and Jeff Merkley have their own proposals. The strictest, the BETS OFF Act, would entirely ban government-adjacent commerce, including on war, terrorism and the Super Bowl halftime show.
None of these bills are close to passing. The Trump administration’s pro-industry stance has significantly slowed the momentum. But the political cost of inaction on visible corruption is growing.
Forecasting market analyst Dustin Gouker expects more congressional offices to follow Moulton’s lead quietly, if not publicly. The legislative window is open. It won’t stay like this forever.
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