Key takeaways
Why is the price of Bitcoin low?
Major economic zones were aggressively selling Bitcoin, with the United States at the forefront.
Will BTC reach $95,000 in November?
The chances of Bitcoin hitting $95,000 have jumped to 48%.
Bitcoin (BTC) was trading near the $100,000 mark at press time.
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has fallen 1.5%, with further decline possible due to widespread selling pressure globally.
US Entities Abandon Bitcoin
At the time of writing, the United States led BTC sales, as shown by the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index. The index has been in the red zone since October 30, reflecting massive dumping from American entities.
For example, BlackRock sold 6,800 BTC worth over $700 million, averaging around $30 million per transaction. The entity did not appear to stop this outflow of capital from Bitcoin and its products before the Fed’s announcement.
Source: CoinGlass
Additionally, Bitcoin ETF flows turned positive after six consecutive days of outflows. According to an article by Satoshi Staker, BTC ETFs saw around $240 million in inflows over the past 24 hours, but this was not enough to counter the outflows.
Aggressive dumping by U.S. entities has made any reversal difficult, as other jurisdictions have also followed this behavior.
Why are the chances of a reversal slim?
The chances of a market reversal were low as selling pressure extended across Asia and the European Union.
Over the past week, Bitcoin’s cumulative per-session return has fallen from approximately +3% to -4%, reflecting increasing bearish momentum.
Bearish sentiment intensified with sellers dominating each session. On November 6, sell orders far outpaced ETF inflows, wiping out buy-side demand.
Source: Bike
This sentiment was reflected in Polymarket’s prediction markets on “What price will Bitcoin reach in November?” »
Chances of BTC falling to $95,000 increased to 48%, while the chances of a drop to $90,000 now stand at 24%.
Meanwhile, the chances of BTC climbing to $115,000 or more have declined, averaging between 2% and 8%.
Overall market sentiment remains biased towards selling, likely influenced by the AI bubble, record job cuts and the ongoing US government shutdown.
Additionally, global tariff tensions have added further pressure on Bitcoin and other crypto assets.
Time reversals with CVD divergence
As the chances of a reversal continue to diminish, CVD divergences could indicate when to anticipate one.
According to data from Hyblock Capital, whenever selling exceeded buying on shorter time frames, prices tended to close higher, and vice versa.
Source: Hyblock Capital
Overall, Bitcoin was under massive selling pressure across the globe, explaining the current weakness. Therefore, a recovery could only occur when supplies exceed demands and aggressive selling ceases.
