2026 could mark the sharpest break yet from everything investors thought understood about Bitcoin cycles.
For over a decade, markets have relied on the four-year halving model to predict spikes, crashes and recoveries.
In this context, 2025 should have marked the peak, with 2026 shaping up to be a difficult year. But a growing number of analysts now say that this model is no longer reliable and that the next phase of crypto could be very different.
In a new Cointelegraph video, we detail new insights from four major crypto companies: Grayscale, Galaxy Digital, Bitwise and 21Shares, to explore what 2026 could hold.
Some forecasts are surprisingly optimistic. Grayscale says Bitcoin (BTC) could reach new all-time highs in the first half of 2026, driven by macroeconomic forces such as rising global debt, the devaluation of fiat currencies, and accelerating institutional adoption through exchange-traded products. If this were to happen, it would effectively invalidate the classic narrative of a four-year cycle.
Others urge caution. Galaxy describes the year ahead as “too chaotic to predict,” citing wide price ranges in options markets and looming uncertainties such as the U.S. midterm elections and change in monetary policy, although he remains optimistic about the long term.
Beyond the price of Bitcoin, the reports converge on several powerful trends shaping crypto’s next chapter: the explosive growth of stablecoins, the rise of prediction markets linked to real-world events, and the growing demand for privacy tools as crypto integrates deeper into traditional finance.
To get the full breakdown, including key data points, company-by-company predictions, and the stories most likely to define 2026, watch the full video now on the Cointelegraph YouTube channel. And don’t forget to like, subscribe and join the conversation in the comments.
