Why Bitcoin’s Growing HODL Cohorts Are a Bearish Signal This Time

Short-term coin activity remains near all-time lows, highlighting low participation from new buyers across the network.

Bitcoin faced renewed selling pressure on Tuesday, briefly dropping the price to $62,700 after a 5% decline, as macroeconomic concerns continued to weigh on investor confidence.

New data suggests that BTC remains in a defensive phase as capital continues to leave the network and supply steadily ages with no signs of renewed accumulation.

Peak buyers are now frozen

The realized cap, which measures the overall value of all coins at the price of their last move, decreased for the second month in a row. According to the latest analysis from Axel Adler Junior, this indicates that capital continues to flow out of the network rather than into it.

The 30-day realized cap net position change currently stands at -2.26% and has remained negative for several weeks, meaning that coins are either moving below their cost basis or there is insufficient capital inflow to offset ongoing outflows. The realized cap peaked on November 26, 2025, at approximately $1.127 trillion and has since fallen to approximately $1.094 trillion, a compression of approximately $33 billion.

Daily changes in net position continue to hover around zero or remain negative, in the absence of new capital entering the market. As long as the 30-day cap measurement remains below zero, the network remains in net exit mode. Returning to positive territory is the first condition required to move on to accumulation.

Additionally, HODL Waves data revealed a significant structural shift in the age distribution of coins, consistent with this defensive regime. Coins that were last moved 3-6 months ago now make up about 26% of Bitcoin’s supply, up from 19% earlier this month. These coins were mostly purchased near the last market peak and have not moved since.

The share of Bitcoin held for 6-12 months has increased to just over 20%, while coins moved in the past month represent less than 10% of the supply. This shows that few new buyers are entering the market, according to Adler Junior. Most of the circulating coins were purchased at higher prices and are now at a loss, making holders reluctant to sell and effectively locking in supply.

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The growth of older cohorts does not represent strategic accumulation but rather forced holding due to unfavorable pricing conditions. The structure would only see a significant change if coins in the 3-6 month band begin to migrate to longer-term cohorts without triggering further selling pressure, alongside a measurable return to short-term activity.

The familiar bear signal is back

Amid a hemorrhage of capital, an important technical signal that appeared towards the end of the last Bitcoin bear markets is starting to form again. According to analyst Ali Martinez, a possible death cross on Bitcoin’s three-day chart is expected to occur in late February.

In previous cycles, this signal systematically appeared just before the final major decline. With the crypto asset still 50% below its October 2025 high, Martinez warned that a similar pattern could open the door to further declines.