The price of Bitcoin may seem deceptively familiar, but according to on-chain analyst James Check, the market beneath the surface has changed far more than most investors realize.
In a new interview with Cointelegraph, Check returns to a question he was asked earlier this year: Are we in a bull or bear market?
While Bitcoin (BTC) trades at near-the-same price levels, Check says that leverage, investor cost base, and sell-side behavior are now very different and all of these changes are significant. In fact, the majority of capital currently invested in Bitcoin has been acquired at higher prices, leaving many holders underwater and shaping a sense of caution.
According to Check, one of the most persistent myths of this cycle is the idea that long-term holders simply aren’t selling. Onchain data shows that coins of all ages, from months to years, are returning to the market at an unusually fast pace. This supply, he says, played an important role in recent price action, even if the narrative didn’t catch up until much later.
At the same time, the analyst objects to claims that exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Michael Saylor or corporate treasuries have “captured” Bitcoin. Although these entities are important, they represent only a portion of the total market activity. Most important, he suggests, is the size and liquidity of Bitcoin, capable of absorbing massive flows without the type of volatility seen in previous cycles.
Looking ahead, Check shares its current framework for 2026, challenging both blind optimism and outright pessimism. The conversation also touches on sovereign adoption, portfolio construction, and long-term risks that most investors rarely think about.
Watch the full interview with James Check on the Cointelegraph YouTube channel to hear the full analysis and the data behind it.
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