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Home»Analysis»Will the ceasefire in Gaza hold? Will the yellow line risk sink global markets?
Analysis

Will the ceasefire in Gaza hold? Will the yellow line risk sink global markets?

October 31, 2025No Comments
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Since the beginning of the attempted ceasefire in Gaza, what was supposed to be a fragile step toward peace has quickly turned into a resumption of violence. The latest bombing, which killed more than a hundred Palestinians in a single day, left many wondering whether Israel ever intended to honor the truce. Despite public declarations of “commitment” to the US-backed deal, the Israeli military continues to carry out airstrikes and raids on Gaza and southern Lebanon, often citing security concerns as justification.

For Palestinians, these words ring hollow. Each new strike reinforces the belief that “ceasefire” has become a meaningless political term: a cover for continued aggression that deepens despair rather than bringing calm.

A woman in Gaza records the first moments after Israel bombed her home despite the “ceasefire” they continue to violate. pic.twitter.com/UbGlYHiq4j

– WearThePeace (@WearThePeaceCo) October 30, 2025

The markets took note. The return of violence in the Middle East has coincided with increased volatility in global assets, including cryptocurrencies.

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Bitcoin

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$109,493.70


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Bitcoin

Bitcoin
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Price

$109,493.70

1.73% /24h





Volume in 24 hours


$67.82 billion



Price 7d

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has rebounded between $106,000 and $110,000 this week as traders reassess risk. Analysts say the correlation between geopolitics and crypto sentiment has strengthened, with investors reacting to every headline related to war or politics.

Market capitalization





The ceasefire, backed by the United States and brokered by Gulf proxies, was also supposed to represent a political victory for President Donald Trump, who has positioned himself as a stabilizing force in the region.

But as Israeli aggression intensifies, its peacemaking narrative fades – and with it, the fragile trust that underpins markets that rely on predictable diplomacy.

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Gaza and Lebanon: the ceasefire is in name only

In Gaza, Israeli airstrikes over the past 24 hours have killed more than a hundred Palestinians, making it one of the deadliest periods since the ceasefire began. The territory’s health officials called it retaliation for the death of an Israeli soldier, while Israel maintains it is acting against “terrorist infrastructure.” Yet on the ground there are few signs of distinction: residential buildings, markets and medical facilities have been repeatedly hit.

Israel insists it remains committed to the truce, but its actions tell a different story. The so-called Yellow Line – a series of concrete markers demarcating Israeli-controlled areas every 200 meters – has become both a symbol and a trap. Civilians say the beacons are almost invisible and meaningless in practice: crossing your own neighborhood can be met with live fire. The border that was supposed to provide order now represents chaos, reinforcing distrust and fear among those trying to return home.

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The situation in Lebanon reflects this trend. Despite a formal ceasefire signed at the end of 2024, Israeli forces have continued their artillery bombardments and air raids in the south. President Joseph Aoun ordered Lebanese troops to resist incursions after a municipal worker was killed in an overnight Israeli raid. More than 4,500 ceasefire violations have been recorded by UN observers since the start of the truce.

Israel claims to target Hezbollah positions, but these operations increasingly appear to be strategic pressure tactics. The result is a two-pronged crisis that undermines not only regional stability, but also the credibility of international diplomacy itself.

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For Trump, peace is a financial question, not a humanitarian one: billions in crypto at stake

For Trump, the image of peace in Gaza has become a political and financial necessity. His administration, alongside advisers Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, attempted to mediate the truce while pursuing broader normalization between Israel and Arab countries under the Abraham Accords.

Behind the push is a significant overlap of interests: The Kushner family and Witkoff’s business network have received billions in investments from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, much of which is tied to cryptocurrency projects and associated funds.

Senator Merkley: UAE buys $2 billion in Trump coins and invests it in Binance. In exchange, Trump said, “those high-end AI chips that we have said for national security reasons we can’t give you, we will give you.”

pic.twitter.com/SHhb4QQuaS

– Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) October 29, 2025

When Israel bombed Doha earlier this year in an attempt to kill Hamas negotiators, it threatened those same financial relationships. The resulting diplomatic backlash reportedly prompted Trump to pressure Israel for a cease-fire. Not out of moral urgency, but to protect the flow of capital from the Gulf to US-aligned projects. Maintaining the “appearance” of peace serves the dual function of preserving Trump’s foreign policy narrative and protecting private investments linked to his inner circle.

Current escalation is testing this balance. As the conflict erupted, investors withdrew cash from risky assets, causing crypto volumes to decline on major exchanges. Funding rates remain negative as traders reduce leverage. Meanwhile, institutional flows into Bitcoin ETFs have slowed amid broader concerns about energy prices and inflation, two macroeconomic factors often linked to regional instability.

For a market once hailed as a hedge against global uncertainty, crypto is now evolving accordingly.

And as long as the ceasefire in Gaza remains in question, the difficult intersection of politics, war and money will continue to dictate sentiments.

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Key takeaways

  • Trump’s mediation in Gaza is not motivated by humanitarian goals but by financial interests: investments from his inner circle, including Gulf-backed crypto projects, depend on regional stability and continued cooperation under the Abraham Accords.

  • The escalation of tensions has weakened the liquidity of cryptocurrencies, slowed institutional flows of Bitcoin, and reinforced the extent to which digital assets now move with geopolitical risk.

The post Will the ceasefire in Gaza hold? Will the yellow line risk sink global markets? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.





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