The XRP on-chain pain gained new attention this week. Losses reached nearly $2 billion in one week. This type of movement attracts the attention of traders because it often marks the elimination of weaker holders.
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Santiment shows heavy realized losses
According to Santiment, the increase is the largest since 2022. Realized losses occur when people sell for less than what they paid. It is a measure of capitulation. In previous cycles, similar peaks occurred near major troughs and were followed by strong rallies.
📉 BREAKING: $XRP continued to jump +114% over the next 8 months.
💸 Significant realized losses occur when a large number… pic.twitter.com/gPUU8fYfiY
–Santiment (@santimentfeed) February 21, 2026
A historic episode discussed by traders saw a week of significant loss before a 114% surge over about eight months. This result, however, results from a specific set of market conditions whose recurrence is not guaranteed.
When many small holders leave
The recent surge in realized losses has attracted the attention of market participants. When investors sell at a loss, the measure rises, reflecting how much hands change below their purchase price. Analysts often monitor this data to assess changes in supply and demand.
Realized profit and loss figures are commonly used to track market behavior during periods of large price swings. Although the data highlights the level of locked losses, price direction generally depends on broader trading activity, liquidity conditions and overall market trends.
Price evolution and market tone
XRP was trading near $1.45 at the time of these reports, up about 1.50% over 24 hours but down around 24% for the month. The token moved mostly in step with Bitcoin during a broader market rally.
Such short-term strength may be a start. It may also be a brief respite as part of a longer correction. Traders looking at charts want to see more volume and clear levels before announcing a trend change.
My #XRP price targets for the next three months:
$13 in March
April $27
May $70– CryptoBull (@CryptoBull2020) February 21, 2026
Why some predictions stretch reality
Analyst targets in the double and triple digits have been circulating online. CryptoBull’s calls to $13, $27, and $70 in a matter of months are extreme and would require considerable new capital flows.
Market capitalization calculations show that these moves require much greater demand than casual optimism would suggest. Other analysts used the previous cycle lows to estimate a possible macroeconomic bottom between $0.75 and $0.85 by applying a multiple of around 2.8x.
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A good signal
Taken together, the data reignited discussion around a rare on-chain signal that in the past had preceded a 114% advance.
The latest figures from Santiment show realized losses reaching levels not seen since 2022, putting the indicator back at the center of attention for traders tracking the behavior of the cycle.
Whether history repeats itself will depend on inbound demand, broader crypto sentiment, and sustained buying pressure in the coming weeks. For now, the signal has sounded again and the market is waiting to see what comes next.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
