XRP is trading at $1.34 – down more than 63% from its July 2025 high of $3.65 and is coming off its worst quarter in eight years – and the next move could be decided not by chart models, but by a Senate committee vote.
The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act is expected to be reviewed by the Banking Committee in the second half of April, and analysts say it represents the most significant regulatory event XRP has faced in 2026.
The stakes are specific: The move could unlock $4 billion to $8 billion in additional XRP ETF inflows, according to Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick, pushing the price above $1.60 and potentially toward previous cycle highs. A blockage after May could send XRP towards $0.82 if Bitcoin falls below $60,000. There is very little common ground here.
What is the CLARITY Act and how does it affect XRP?
Think of the CLARITY Act as the difference between a corporate policy and a federal law. Currently, the SEC and CFTC issued a joint interpretative release on March 17, 2026, classifying XRP alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana as a digital commodity – thus transferring primary oversight to the CFTC. It matters. But an interpretive version can be rescinded by a future administration, as issued, by means of a memo.
The CLARITY Act would enshrine this classification into federal law. Banks, asset managers and institutional custodians currently on the sidelines are not waiting because they doubt XRP’s commodity status – they are waiting because a legislative foothold is the only protection against regulatory whiplash. As 99Bitcoins has reported on the competitive stakes of CLARITY Act delays, the lack of a codified law is already pushing capital and businesses toward the EU’s MiCA framework, which provides exactly the permanence that the CLARITY Act would provide.
BREAKING: Banks and crypto companies have privately agreed to a deal over the Bitcoin market structure bill.
An announcement is expected this week.
The CLARITY Act has been stuck since January over a dispute over whether crypto platforms can offer a return on stablecoins.
This fight… pic.twitter.com/YbCtOulJU3
– Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) April 6, 2026
The bill also resolves the long-standing dispute over the yield of stablecoins. Senators Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) reached a principled compromise on March 20 banning passive yield on stable balances, but allowing activity-based rewards tied to payments and platform usage – a bank-friendly outcome that cleared one of the bill’s biggest internal hurdles.
Senator Bernie Moreno has publicly warned that if the bill does not reach the full Senate by May, midterm election dynamics will push it off the calendar for the remainder of 2026. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, who previously predicted a 90% approval rating, shifted his planned timeline from late April to late May. Polymarket currently rates the transition with a probability of around 63-66% for 2026 – significant, but not sure, probabilities.
Can XRP Price Break $1.60 Before CLARITY Act Passes?
For the moment, XRP is not moving; it waits. Price is holding above $1.20, a level that has already absorbed two sell-offs, but it still cannot get back above $1.50 where resistance and the 50-day average lie, and with below-average volume it is clear that neither buyers nor sellers are stepping in with conviction.
Momentum isn’t helping either, with the RSI sitting around the mid-40s and drifting lower, consistent with a market that’s content to fluctuate rather than build real strength.
But beneath the surface, there is a bigger story. XRP ETFs have already made a lot of money without full legal clarity, showing that the demand is there, but the missing piece is regulation, because if XRP is locked in as a commodity by law, that’s what opens the door for larger funds to step in, turning this from a sentiment game into a structural inflow story.
Until then, XRP price is stuck between $1.20 and $1.50, moving with Bitcoin and waiting for a real catalyst.
This is why $1.20 is so important, because if it breaks out of volume before any regulatory progress, it likely means the market has already given up on the short-term catalyst and at that point the recovery setup becomes much weaker.
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The article XRP Price Depends on Senate CLARITY Act – Why This Bill Matters appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
