November was a reality check of sorts for Bitcoin (BTC) price action. Crypto gold was riding out its success by creating an ATH of $126,000 in October, and the broader crypto market thought the era of massive BTC liquidations was over.
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Bitcoin
1.37%
Bitcoin
BTC
Price
$91,248.25
1.37% /24h
Volume in 24 hours
$72.09 billion
Price 7d
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fell from $126,000 and continued to fall, erasing all gains from earlier this year. Over the past 24 hours, its prices briefly fell below $90,000, reaching $88,000 before bulls stepped in to control losses.
Since then, BTC has rebounded slightly and is trading above the $90,000 support level, with chances of falling further. According to XWIN Research Japan, BTC could remain stuck between $60,000 and $80,000 until the end of the year if the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decides not to cut interest rates at its upcoming December meeting.
The next Fed meeting is shaping up to be one of the most uncertain in years and the market is caught in analysis paralysis. Additionally, the recent U.S. government shutdown delayed key economic reports, such as October and November jobs data, leaving policymakers with limited room to maneuver.
A few weeks earlier, the market expected another rate cut in December. However, the probability of a rate cut has now fallen to around 40-50%.
Bitcoin fork outlook if Fed doesn’t cut rates in December
“If the Fed doesn’t cut spending in December, Bitcoin will likely trade between $60,000 and $80,000 by the end of the year.” – By @xwinfinance pic.twitter.com/u4gNtzIrhM
– CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 20, 2025
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Stablecoin reserves of $72 billion on the sidelines: will they stabilize the price movement of BTC?
Historically, if monetary policy remains tight, it draws money out of riskier assets like crypto.
When it became clear that the Fed would not cut rates in December, the crypto market entered a downturn from which it was unable to properly rebound.
Now, if the Fed decides not to cut interest rates in December, analysts believe that BTC could get stuck in this limbo and move sideways in a narrow price range. In the current market setup, traders use leverage, i.e. borrowed money, and are particularly exposed to risk because there is less liquidity in the system.
According to the study, “If the Fed chooses not to cut, the logic is simple: inflation remains near 3%, policymakers fear easing too early, and missing data makes policymakers more cautious. This scenario generally keeps liquidity tight and risk appetite muted.”
$BTC is consolidating around the $92,000 level.
U.S. stock futures are up after NVIDIA’s strong earnings, while the VIX is down.
Pre-market trading information:
Nasdaq futures are up 1.7%
– Ted (@TedPillows) November 20, 2025
Nasdaq futures are up 1.7% 
There are, however, chances of a rebound. Stablecoin reserves on crypto exchanges have reached an all-time high of $72.2 billion, meaning a lot of money remains on the sidelines, waiting for the right time to re-enter the market. In fact, every major BTC rally in 2025 started with a similar accumulation of stablecoins.
If the Fed refrains from cutting rates, analysts expect BTC to trade between $60,000 and $80,000 through the end of the year. For now, its price is being held up by cautious investor sentiment and is unlikely to fall until traders feel more confident about the Fed’s next move.
“Liquidity is there, but macroeconomic uncertainty prevents its deployment,” the study indicates. The big question now is whether the stablecoin reserve will remain sidelined or start flowing into BTC once the political uncertainty subsides.
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Fundamentals Are Strong: Analysts Play Down Winter Crypto Fears
Although the market has been declining for most of November, analysts still believe that the current slowdown resembles more of a macroeconomic correction than the start of a crypto winter.
They pointed to institutional interest and adoption, regulatory progress and sector resilience as signs of the sector’s strong fundamentals and foundations.
Bitwise’s Danny Nelson and HashKey’s Tim Sun both argued that the market is far from a true winter.
They noted that, unlike previous collapses, the current cycle has not seen a catastrophic event like FTX and that infrastructure improvements, from tokenization to stablecoin expansion, continue to strengthen the ecosystem.
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Key takeaways
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BTC price fell from $126,000 to $88,000, erasing all 2025 gains
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XWIN Research Japan expects BTC to trade between $60,000 and $80,000 if the Fed skips the rate cut.
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$72 billion in stablecoins could enable a rebound once political uncertainty dissipates
The article XWIN Research Japan: BTC Could Stay in $60,000-$80,000 Range if Fed Holds Rates appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
